bluesman,
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Seems like it to me, too. With a fruitcake like A-jad in charge, you really can't predict or understand their calculus. He sincerely believes that it is his job to sow enough chaos for the Twelth Imam to reveal himself and return to usher in Islam's new Golden Age.
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you're putting too much emphasis on a-jad. remember, khatami the reformist didn't have much power; the one saving grace a-jad has got is simply on MOST things, he is an ally of the ayatollah. the real power in iran has always belonged in two places: the ayatollahs and the people.
of these two power centers, as we've seen, most recently in the "destroy israel" comments, even the ayatollah himself is nervous about such talk. in fact, he forced a-jad to back down on those comments. like i said before, the ayatollahs have a marvelous sense of self-preservation.
as for the people? a-jad is supported by the poorer classes, but again, the middle-upper classes restrain him. the latter, being largely comfortable where they are, want nuclear power, as do the rest of the population (in both senses of the term), but they are a good deal less desirous of a confrontation with the west. and as they hold the purse-strings for such a war, well...
i do not view a war with iran as being inevitable at this stage. in the end, despite the sometime-irrationality of a-jad, he still follows two masters, both of which are VERY rational. and a-jad won't be around forever.