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I'm not so sure - if Hitler doesnt declare war then Roosevelt may decide to concentrate on Japan after PH.
Lend-lease is great - but only if it actually gets to the UK/USSR. Would the USA continue to build (and more importantly fund) the Liberty ships without being at war with Germany?
My best guess is an eventual stalemate in the East - possibly with the Soviets pushed as far as the Urals (Hitler's "final destination"). Without US assistance in North Africa , and with no allied threat on France, Britain's position in the Med and Mid-East become untenable. The empire to the east is effectively lost. Britain might soldier on - or make peace after a general election.
Does the USA jump straight into a war with Hitler after defeating Japan? Or are they content to see the Germans ground down and enter a "cold war" state. Nukes are the other "unknowable" - Germans were working towards one....
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