World Affairs Board - View Single Post - An insight into the US argument for the nuke deal

highsea · 04-28-2006, 13:37 PM

I predict this whole deal will unravel.

If this was 4 years ago, Bush would have been able to shove it through. But Bush is a lame duck pres now, end even Repubs are starting to move away from him in anticipation of the mid-term elections and 2008. Bush's policy victories are pretty much behind him as a President. The next two years will coast by with no major Foreign Policy shifts. It always works that way in US politics.

Without complete Repub support in Congress, there is no way it will pass. Bush just doesn't have that support in this deal, and there is no way the Congress will pass this without extensive debate. And the longer the debate lasts, the less likely the deal will be approved. Hell, if only two Republican Senators vote against it, it's dead. It's a given that no Dems will go for it.

This is just the beginning of the opposition, and it gives the Bush critics some major firepower in an area they are traditionally weak on. Even Bush supporters won't be able to stand foursquare behind the Pres on this one.

The concerns over proliferation to Iran, NorK, and Pakistan wrt Russia and China will outweigh any imagined commercial benefits, and there are no strategic ones (that I can see anyway).

04-28-2006, 13:37 PM	#2 (permalink)
highsea *Defense Professional* Join Date: 12-10-04 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 3,585	I predict this whole deal will unravel. If this was 4 years ago, Bush would have been able to shove it through. But Bush is a lame duck pres now, end even Repubs are starting to move away from him in anticipation of the mid-term elections and 2008. Bush's policy victories are pretty much behind him as a President. The next two years will coast by with no major Foreign Policy shifts. It always works that way in US politics. Without complete Repub support in Congress, there is no way it will pass. Bush just doesn't have that support in this deal, and there is no way the Congress will pass this without extensive debate. And the longer the debate lasts, the less likely the deal will be approved. Hell, if only two Republican Senators vote against it, it's dead. It's a given that no Dems will go for it. This is just the beginning of the opposition, and it gives the Bush critics some major firepower in an area they are traditionally weak on. Even Bush supporters won't be able to stand foursquare behind the Pres on this one. The concerns over proliferation to Iran, NorK, and Pakistan wrt Russia and China will outweigh any imagined commercial benefits, and there are no strategic ones (that I can see anyway). __________________ My baby called me up. She said- Why don't you ever take me out? Pick me up in your brand new car....You shake the short change from the old fruit jar...