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Originally Posted by gunnut
Now you're talking geopolitics rather than military might.
US is "fairly" immune to China's pressure, not TOTALLY immune. We still do business with China.
What we're trying to do is balance the region and plug up China, not totally help out one side and crush the other. The US will supply Taiwan with "defensive" weaponry when China's offensive ability is deemed a threat to this balance. Taiwan will get THAAD if there's a threat, not before.
Taiwan will NOT get offensive weapons that can hit deep inside China with precision, like dams and power plants. This upsets the balance.
NATO won't get involved because China pretty much bought them all.
Taiwan won't get too good a defensive suite because that means it'll just go ahead and declare independence. That'll piss off China.
You see the type of game we're trying to play here? We can't just turn our backs on Taiwan but we can't offend China too much either. It's a fine line we walk and have been for the last 20+ years.
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It'll get harder and harder as the PLA's capabilities increase. I'm sure in the back of their heads the CCP would have been aware of how difficult it would have been for the PLA to invade Taiwan and subsequently take on the US Military in years gone by, but as the PLA-AF and PLA-N get newer and jazzier equipment and the Navy boosts it's capabilities they might start to feel confident they can win in the limited war scenario, and thus invasion of Taiwan might be a more likely response if the ROC steps out of line.
Still both sides would obviously rather avoid a war, given the staggering costs involved.