Ironduke

According to the latest polls, if the election were today...

Looks alot like the 2000 electoral map, Bush vs. Gore. Same swing states.

Attached Images

electoralmap2.gif (17.7 KB, 166 views)

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The Buck Stops Here

BudW

Oregan,OH,PA-Obama/WV-McCain

Ironduke

Got my hands on a couple more polls... PA to Obama, WV to McCain. Ohio & Oregon too close to call.

Herodotus

I figure that's what it will come down to. There is a natural bias in the Electoral College for Republicans, with the South and Western states. Ohio may be the key, it is socially conservative and economically liberal. It depends on what people there value more, their guns, or their jobs.

Bluesman

If they want to keep either, they'd be fools to vote Democrat.

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"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory."
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Ironduke

Economical liberalism is pro-free trade, pro-free markets, favor less regulations. Republicans are economic liberals.

The Democratic economic agenda is economically conservative, favoring tariffs, more regulations, against NAFTA, etc.

wkllaw

Does the news being currently focused more on Obama facing Hillary thus giving him more coverage help Obama?

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Those who can't change become extinct.

Ironduke

To some degree, probably.

Ironduke

2/24/08

New Mexico moved to "Too Close to Call" with a Rasmussen poll placing McCain and Obama in a tie.

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electoralmap3.gif (18.0 KB, 162 views)

SteaminDemon

Nice Map IronDuke. I see it has been updated too. I have seen all kinds of deferent numbers so far. Through some that I have seen it seems McCain has a much larger edge versus Hillary than he does versus Obama. I can't remember the other poll that was on the news, but it had McCain trailing badly against Obama, which I hope is not the case if it comes down to it. Out of the Majority of the Polls you have seen, do these maps represent the majority of polls out there?

Ironduke

Some of the latest polls look good for McCain.

Rasmussen Reports has McCain at 47, Obama at 44.

USA Today/Gallup has McCain at 48, Obama at 47.

The AP put out a poll with Obama 51, McCain 41, but it put out another poll at the same time with Clinton 48, Obama 43 while McCain has consistently lead Clinton for weeks, so I doubt its reliability. The sampling consisted of 48% Democrats, 37% Republicans as well.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Latest Polls

Interestingly, if Obama is the nominee, it appears that Florida will not be a swing state if current trends hold up. It is solidly in the McCain camp for now.

Rasmussen on 2/18 has McCain 53, Obama 37, whereas it's McCain 49, Clinton 43. Obama's already lost Florida due to his stance regarding talks with Cuba's leader and his position on seating Florida's delegates, in my opnion.

Herodotus

There's a lot of red on that map. Looks like McCain could do well. Doesn't McCain like the underdog role though? I think he would relish being the underdog against Obama.

EclipsetheRuin

Thats a really interesting map...however, how can you explain the tremendous differences in primary turnout numbers between the Republicans and Democrats?

SteaminDemon

Good point, I have been wondering about that as well. We have been seeing things like 300,000 Clinton, 300,000 Obama vs 169,000 McCain, 40,000 Huckabee. Can someone explain? If those numbers remain the same in the general election then McCain will have no chance. Let's hope McCain's #'s will be stronger in the GE then what they have been in the primary.

dalem

They will be. Republicans and conservatives hate Hillary and fear Obama. We'll be out in force once they finish with the Lirpa and the Ahn-woon.

-dale