Herodotus

Partly I think the numbers can be chalked up to the so-called excitement factor; Obama is a fresh face, and Hillary is a woman. Just because a party can generate votes during the primaries doesn't mean they can generate the same votes in the general election.

In each of the last three elections the party that had the most primary voters lost the popular vote for the Presidency. In 2004 the Democrats had twice as many voters as did the Republicans, granted the Republicans had an incumbent president. But in 2000 the Republicans had 5.5 million more voters than the Democrats, and that was a pretty close election. It's a long way to November.

SteaminDemon

Thanks for clearing that up Dale and Herodo. I feel better already.

Ironduke

Democratic turnout would have been higher regardless, but one thing to keep in mind is that McCain has had this thing wrapped up since Florida, for all practical purposes.

__________________
The Buck Stops Here

lwarmonger

One of the other things is that each major dem candidate (individually) has spent more than all of the republicans up to super tuesday.... that kind of money buys getting out votes and organization that is very important to a primary (something most people don't automatically think about whether or not they wish to vote in... unlike the general election).

EclipsetheRuin

That is a very true fact. However, the Republicans have many factors running against them. For instance, the disapproval of the current administration, McCain's age/health, media attention and Obama's sheer charisma. This election round democrats are energized and excited. As opposed to many Republicans who are divided and apathetic.

Ironduke

As a result of a few recent polls showing McCain or Obama having a slight lead over the other in Pennsylvania, I've moved it into the "Too Close to Call" column.

2/25/08
Quinnipiac
McCain 40, Obama 42, Und 12

2/24/08
Morning Call
McCain 42, Obama 39, Und 15

2/18/08
Franklin & Marshall
McCain 44, Obama 43, Und 13

Attached Images

electoralmap.GIF (16.5 KB, 65 views)

lwarmonger

So New Mexico is not longer too close to call?

Ironduke

Sure is, just copied the wrong map to edit.

wkllaw

Really, fear Obama?

I've been hearing a lot about the republican's attitude towards Hillary Clinton, but I haven't heard much in regards to Obama, I don't think I really know anything about this. Can you tell me how they generally view him and will they really be out in force against him as they will be against Hillary?

__________________
Those who can't change become extinct.

Ironduke

I think Republicans commonly view him as being a demagogue and a populist.

Ironduke

Perhaps we're seeing the end of Obama's domination of the polls...

2/27/08
LA Times/Bloomberg
McCain 44, Obama 42, Und 9

2/27/08
Rasmussen
Mccain 46, Obama 43

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election.

dalem

He's an extreme lefty socialist. He will weaken our security, embolden our enemies, destroy our economy, move us several giant steps closer to becoming a whiney baby nation a la Euroland, and will probably drive to my house and kick my dog to boot.

We'll be out in force against all of that.

-dale

Bluesman

You forgot to mention we're all a bunch of racist rednecks, too.

__________________
"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory."
- George Orwell

wkllaw

I can see why they will dislike him, but will he have the same effect on Republicans as Hillary Clinton?

lwarmonger

Initially polling put the Republican opposition to Obama as considerably less than Hillary. However those numbers are creeping higher, as are the number of moderates turning away from Obama. Obama is one of those candidates who has the problem that the more people learn about him, the more they don't want him as head of our country. Up until now he has been able to ride the rhetoric of Obamism to victory in the democratic primary... however I doubt McCain is going to give him a pass on the issues the way Hillary did.