Ironduke

Perhaps there's a possibility of a divide and conquer move by the Republicans, trying to split the middle-aged working class against the "latte liberals" supporting Obama.

"How do you like the idea of a bunch of Starbucks-sipping spoiled college kids picking your candidate? Join us!"

And like I've said before, the Democrats may very well exhaust the willingness of their supporters to fork over more cash with so much being donated during the very early phases.

I don't think an Obama candidacy even has enough energy to make the youth vote much more consequential that it's lowly state in the past... there's strong potential for rebellion among the almost monolithic 55+ vote.

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The Buck Stops Here

Bluesman

Unfortunately, those pockets aren't NEARLY tapped-out yet. I read that the mountain of munny Obamessiah is raising is in VERY small donations. Hillary is getting LOTS of max-limit donations of $2600 from individuals, and that's one of the indicators that she may be about to go bust. But Barack...he's taking in ENORMOUS amounts of under-a-thousand donations. That means two things: his mailing list is friggin' HUGE, and there's lots more room for him to go before individual donations top out.

Be afraid. He may swamp us with the money that is yet to come in.

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"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory."
- George Orwell

Ironduke

If he wins the nomination, it's not going to be tomorrow. He would have another three or four months of anti-Hillary spending to go.

BTW, the maximum donation for individuals is $2300 for primaries, and $2300 for the elections, for a total of $4600 per election cycle. Those who have already donated $4600 to Hillary cannot donate a dime to Obama.

Republican coffers, on the other hand, are vastly untapped. I hope it proves to the case that the Republicans have held back until a frontrunner emerges, at which point they'll start donating heavily.

Another point to keep in mind is that most college students sip microbrews and eat out for the first month of the semester... then drink the Beast and eat PB sandwiches for the rest of it, paid for with credit card of course. A huge proportion of Obama's donors are no doubt college students, expect them to be cashed out SOON.

Financial aid disbursements may help explain part of Obama's January boom.

gunnut

Another thing, those small donations might be from people who are unwilling or unable to donate more. So even if they are below the limit, they just might not be able to fork over more cash 6 months from now for another round of campaign.

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"Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

marklv

I think Obama will win the Potomac primaries and also Texas. Clinton will pick up Ohio. In anycase, the super-delegates will kill off Obama - most of them are in the Clinton camp.

FullTank

but wouldn't that go against the 'people's wishes? If Obama has a greater lead than Clinton based on voting done..it would be quite wrong if the delegates chose differently.

dalem

That's why us Repub supporters want it to happen - we (well, some chunk of us anyway) believe that event will tear the Democratic party apart and leave them dazed and confused on Election Day.

-dale

lwarmonger

Hispanics have been going very strongly for Hillary (my girlfriend, the Spanish Literature grad student, says that is because Mexicans simply won't vote for a black man... I don't really know anything about that), so I'd say that Obama's going to have a tough time with Texas.

gunnut

The brown people just don't get along with the black people. No offense, just being blunt.

The blacks resent the hispanics for taking their job opportunities away. They also dislike the fact the hispanics have changed black neighborhoods into spanish speaking barrios.

The hispanics think blacks hamper the progress of "minorities."

Of course I speak in generalities. Hispanics identify more with white people than with black people. Hispanics want to join the white mainstream. Blacks are more into their own culture and generally don't like anything white. Same reason why Asians don't like blacks and vice versa.

Ironduke

Yep, the funds from the student loans and Pell Grants have a tendency to disappear rather quickly.

lwarmonger

On the other hand, those funds will appear again round about September.

FullTank

dale I think you are very right!!!! It would be a disaster for the Democrats if the super delegates did such a thing.

Me thinks Hillary should understand which way the wind is blowing and come to some kind of understanding with Obama and give up the presidential race...maybe settle for VP. Obama has won far too many states(in count) and hillary just winning maybe a few key states doesn't really represent the country(democrats) imo.



Not really....asians have a problem only with other asians. blacks and whites are quite fine.

Ironduke

Maybe Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, etc., all the conservative talk show hosts who rail against McCain, could do a favor for us by calling for massive primary raids to vote for whoever the weaker candidate appears to be on each particular primary night.

You know, keep things interesting on the Democratic side, lengthen the battle.

lwarmonger

I believe at this stage Hillary still has more votes than Obama does... Obama just has more delegates.

Hillary is winning the large states and the swing states... Obama is winning the small states (and fortunately for him, two of the swing states don't count for the democrats this year).

Ironduke

I heard on TV Obama's popular vote count now matches Clinton's. This includes all numbers from Florida, and Clinton's numbers from Michigan.

RealClearPolitics has Obama at 1259 to Clinton's 1210 delegates.

If Florida were included, that would rise to about 1350 to 1340.