gunnut

Metaphor is too colorful? Should I leave out the "flying" part?

Let's hope the "youth vote" turns out just like all the previous elections: youths don't vote.

__________________
"Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

JAD_333

Hot potato for an opposing candidate to handle. But the back channel buzz might be able to swiftboat it.

__________________
To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education. (Plato)

JAD_333

No. The "flying" is appropriate. How else would you see it unless you got down on all fours.



Well, part of my point is that this time they think they have a reason. It's a fad thing in my worthless, humble opinion, and the best we can hope for is that it fades away like all fads do. Circulate the rumor that he hates surf and snow boarding, would ban tricked out wheels, wears false teeth and supports jail time for graffiti artists. The latter will turn off my son. There's one less vote.

lwarmonger

Well, the fact that he is the most liberal senator out there can be used against him in the general election. McCain is without a doubt a moderate, which is what most Americans (whether they actually are or not) wish themselves to be. Given his track record, and the fact that the guy is obviously of the extreme left, his history can be used against him to scare those moderates away. Then it becomes a question of how much of the democratic party base can he mobilize, and how much of that ultra-right wing of the Republican party will stay away from the polls?

JAD_333

You're still thinking issues, experience and all those important things. Liberal doesn't matter to the vast majority of young people; a liberal is anyone who doesn't think, look or act like your parents. We're looking for a wart...a big wart.

lwarmonger

Islamofascist? He kills babies? I don't get what you are looking for here... most charismatic politicians can get away with doing pretty much anything (look at our former President Clinton). The best thing I can say about America's young is that they don't vote most of the time. While they may vote in slightly larger numbers this election, I don't think it will be enough to matter significantly.

And being the most liberal senator is not a big feather in your cap when it comes to moderates (whom the democrats actually won in 2004). I think with either Obama or Clinton as an opponent McCain can win that middle ground. The question that seems pertinent to me is how much of that far right will stay home, and how much of that democratic base will come out.

JAD_333

Guess I am not explaining it well. I'll take another stab at it.

You know why negative campaign ads work. They tear down an opponent's character in hopes of weakening his image. I could give you a lot of examples. There's the opponent who claims to be a regular churchgoer, but 20 years ago at 18 years old was arrested (but not convicted) for drinking in public. The negative ad breathlessly relates those the two facts and then leapfrog to the question: can we trust someone who claims to be religious and yet drinks in public.

On a lower level, a charismatic, good looking candidate with personal appeal is vulnerable to revelations of a more mundane nature, e.g., he's had a nose job, he has bad halitosis, etc.

Negative ads have to be designed to fit the audience. If the audience is older, the first example works better. If it is younger, the ick factor plays better... See what I mean...what is Obama's ick factor...lol. Of course, I am being a bit facetious here, but what the hell...

FibrillatorD

You could say that. Keep trying if you want I guess

FullTank

Obama now takes Maine too! Clinton replaces her campaign manager now.

Obama seems to be on a roll.

Parihaka

Obama's major strength is also his weakness: he's messianic. Wherever a messiah turns up, some pretty major bloodletting usually follows.

marklv

Hillary Clinton is in deep, deep trouble. The remaining states are all prime Obama territory: Virginia, Maryland and Washington DC. The black vote is substantial in all these states, and many whites will also back Obama. Even the rednecks will back Obama before Clinton.

Bluesman

May be headed to a brokered convention. And whatever you may THINK about that, it's bad for the GOP. The worst thing that could've happened to the Dems was a leisurely cruise into a 'coronation' convention, with no suspense, and half the delegates feeling like they just got ignored.

With a brokered convention, the Dems have the chance to get into a huddle, and bring the wings together, dealing out favors and Cabinet posts and setting up enough unity to bring the max vote out in November.

Also, and even more important, it makes the media breathlessly follow the whole dramatic thang, and sucks the oxygen away from the GOP. For the entire week, there would be wall-to-wall-to-wall coverage of the Dem convention, rising to a fever-pitch suspenseful crescendo on nomination night, and making it impossible for ANYbody to talk about anything else around the water-cooler at work.

I'd rather Hillary had just cruised to an easy win on Super-Duper Tuesday, and the Dem convention would be a ho-hum formality. A fight all the way to the doors of the convention hall is actually working AGAINST the GOP.

__________________
"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory."
- George Orwell

dalem

I am in the camp that believes that a brokered Dem convention, especially one that "awards" a close race to Hillary, will break the Dems.

And I'd love to see that.

-dale

Bluesman

Well, I definitely see that as a possibility. But I think they're on the make right now, and while their talent for blowing their own foot off electorally-speaking-wise is unmatched, if they're going to get it together for their best shot, they've got to pull the wings together. And they CAN in a convention that has the drama and suspense that no de facto pre-decided coronation ever could.

But...they've demonstrated time and again that they can screw up a wet dream, so ya never know.

JAD_333

The flip side is that the losers in a brokered convention end up disgruntled and suspicious of the winning side. You could see conspiracy theories bloom.

I wouldn't worry too much about the dems sucking the air out of the GOP convention. If we don't have a bit of suspense ourselves, which would be the case in the unlikely event McCain comes up short of a majority, we'll look downright orderly by comparison. The suspense would come with the VP choice. It will matter a lot given McCain's age.

In any event, the limelight of the conventions will fade quickly. Then Obama or Clinton will come under much more scrutiny than they've been subjected too up to now. McCain is a known quantity. It'll be the former POW, war hero, follow-your-conscience candidate with reams of experience facing off against the likeable kid from Illinois with little experinece or the ex-president's wife (ironically also from Illinois) with a menu of social programs that we can't afford unless we cut defense and little success in getting anything enacted.