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Old 04-24-2008, 00:02 AM   #76 (permalink)
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I work for a major American manufacturer and the weak dollar is actually hurting us. Why? Cause we offshored a lot of our suppliers. Yeah, I'd prefer domestic too, but welcome to how corporations work, they have to continually look everywhere to improve profits otherwise Wall Street will look bad at our stock.
That's an ongoing process for every single business regardless of how the dollar does.

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(That's why everything moved to Mexico for some industries, and the Mexican peso has gone up little to none versus the American dollar despite the American dollar's plunge, so that production's still not moving back.)
You should be happy. The money is not going to China and Mexicans are employed in their own country rather than coming over here to "do the jobs Americans won't do."

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Anyway, we have one part for example we assemble that we offshored to India and it saved us $50 per one. We use one of these parts for one of our end units we sell to customers. We make roughly 600 units a day at my factory alone. Multiply that by 300 days' worth of production and we make 180,000 units per year. Multiply by that $50 savings per unit and it comes out to $9,000,000 yearly savings. That's not even counting our other half dozen factories in the United States.

Now, say the dollar goes lower and that original $50 saving per part is now only $40. We're not moving that production back to the United States cause we're saving $40 per part. But we lose $10 of our expected $50 savings per part per unit, which means that the $9,000,000 yearly savings is now only $7,200,000. So in this example, the lower dollar costs my company $1,800,000. This is not a hypothetical, I know this has happened.
This is a very specific example. It may be true, but economics doesn't deal with specific examples. It deals with large number statistics. With every penny drop in the dollar's worth, there's a marginal consumer/business change in attitude. For example, your company may have lost money, but the next company might be breaking even because they're sell more of their widgets to overseas market. And yet another company that was planning to ship jobs overseas to improve cost structure, might scrap that idea because foreign labor is now relatively expensive. Jobs saved.

Over a longer period, jobs will move back. Dell has already moved a large part of their customer service back from India, even before the dollar drop. Why? They lost more money from poor customer service (no offense to Indians, but when we look for customer service, we want fluent english) than they gained in cost savings. Now the dollar is cheaper, more will move back because it makes even more sense.

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We're not receiving any more production cause of the lower dollar either. As any good multinational Fortune 500 company does, we have plants overseas that make those engines, and those plants are responsible for end units in their respective geographic regions by contract.
They moved manufacturing overseas because cost is too high here. Lower environmental regulations, lower corporate taxes, lower wages (why does a worker at American Axle make $150,000 a year in wages and benefits?), along with a weak dollar will guarantee the return of jobs. Don't blame businesses for moving offshore when you treat them like crap here. Make it worth their while and they'll be back.

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The price of a gallon of gasoline has tripled in eight years, has gasoline usage gone down any in that timeframe? I don't use oil or its resultant products cause I want to, it's cause I have to.
Total usage of gasoline has dropped for the first time in....probably ever, this past quarter. The rise in gas usage in recent years has lagged behind the increase in population.

I welcome high gasoline prices, as long as it's due to market condition and not taxes. It'll make people think twice about buying one of those huge trucks that I can't see through, around, over, or under.
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Old 04-24-2008, 00:19 AM   #77 (permalink)
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I welcome high gasoline prices, as long as it's due to market condition and not taxes. It'll make people think twice about buying one of those huge trucks that I can't see through, around, over, or under.
If you ever get to come out and go shooting with me I'll drive us to the range in my 1ton, 425hp, 4x4, crew cab, longbed, Chevy. That way you can look through the windshield.
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Old 04-24-2008, 03:26 AM   #78 (permalink)
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I blame the Laffer curve. it was a big shell game to justify tax cuts. the revenue didn't come now
You're wrong about that. In the first place, it was never claimed that lowering taxes will increase revenues. In fact, Laffer clearly stated and his data proved that if taxes are low, then lowering taxes may not increase revenues at all. Laffer only promised that if taxes were high then lowering taxes would increase revenues, and they did. Like most liberal Democrats, you reject the Laffer curve because it didn't balance the budget, didn't cut government spending, didn't redistribute the wealth, and didn't solve social problems, in spite of the fact that Laffer's theory was never intended to do any of those things and Laffer made no such warranties or guarantees.
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Old 04-24-2008, 07:23 AM   #79 (permalink)
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That's an ongoing process for every single business regardless of how the dollar does.



You should be happy. The money is not going to China and Mexicans are employed in their own country rather than coming over here to "do the jobs Americans won't do."



This is a very specific example. It may be true, but economics doesn't deal with specific examples. It deals with large number statistics. With every penny drop in the dollar's worth, there's a marginal consumer/business change in attitude. For example, your company may have lost money, but the next company might be breaking even because they're sell more of their widgets to overseas market. And yet another company that was planning to ship jobs overseas to improve cost structure, might scrap that idea because foreign labor is now relatively expensive. Jobs saved.

Over a longer period, jobs will move back. Dell has already moved a large part of their customer service back from India, even before the dollar drop. Why? They lost more money from poor customer service (no offense to Indians, but when we look for customer service, we want fluent english) than they gained in cost savings. Now the dollar is cheaper, more will move back because it makes even more sense.



They moved manufacturing overseas because cost is too high here. Lower environmental regulations, lower corporate taxes, lower wages (why does a worker at American Axle make $150,000 a year in wages and benefits?), along with a weak dollar will guarantee the return of jobs. Don't blame businesses for moving offshore when you treat them like crap here. Make it worth their while and they'll be back.



Total usage of gasoline has dropped for the first time in....probably ever, this past quarter. The rise in gas usage in recent years has lagged behind the increase in population.

I welcome high gasoline prices, as long as it's due to market condition and not taxes. It'll make people think twice about buying one of those huge trucks that I can't see through, around, over, or under.
You give great anecdotal stories about a manufacturers labor problems.

Quote:
This week, as more than 3,600 workers marked the end of their first month on strike against the wage-cutting demands of auto parts supplier American Axle & Manufacturing, it was revealed that the company’s CEO, Richard Dauch, was paid $10.2 million in salary, bonuses and other benefits in 2007.

Dauch, whose compensation since 2003 has totaled nearly $70 million, is demanding that workers accept a cut in pay from $28 to $14.50 an hour and, in some cases, as low as $11.50. Dauch insists that the company cannot afford to maintain the current level of wages and benefits.
Where do you get 150k a claim from a company that wont show proof of it??? Maybe if they have great medical and a great pension they get 40 dollars an hr now. Are they highly skilled machinist? Why is executive pay going up so fast if profitability is an issues?

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American Axle boosts CEO compensation over 9 percent
Kirk Kerkorian called it when he said if management asks for give backs it needs to be ready to give back. This companies management seems to want to finance their raises with cuts in labor costs

Quote:
Dauch's bonus in 2006 was $3.9 million, and his total compensation that year was valued at roughly $7.5 million.
Wow after his bonuses were calculated he got a 25% raise in 2007...and now he cries they can't afford labor costs????? The Union isnt going to give anything back when they see a Delco move by company management. By that I mean...NO SACRIFICE FROM THEM. If the management truly wants to impress upon it's workforce it needs give backs it needs to start giving back not taking more. Has any salaried worker had his pay cut there????? They are part of the cost of production too.

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The company posted net income of $37 million last year while many of its competitors lost money.
WOW a CEO deserves 25% of the profits??? I would bet the pay of the CEO, Company President and the dozen or so VPs they probably have was more than the total profits of the company. It seems to me that's a bigger issue than paying someone 28 dollars an hr. isn't it a bit much to pay management more money and ask the workforce to accept 50% paycuts????

OMG IT GETS WORSE. THEY ASK FOR GIVE BACKS, THEY GIVE EXECS BIG RAISES AND THEY WONT OPEN THE BOOKS TO SHOW THEY NEED TO CUT WAGES BY HALF
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One unfair labor practice charge filed against American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (AXL:
a is resolved, and a second one could be soon - making both union and company officials hopeful that substantial bargaining could resume as early as this weekend to bring an end to the 39-day long strike, The Detroit News reported in its Friday editions.
One charge, the firm's premature canceling of health care benefits for some workers, was resolved Thursday. The second, the withholding of needed financial data is under review, said UAW Local 235 President Adrian King, who represents workers at the Detroit plant.
it's pretty much a given if a company wants it's workforce to accept huge paycuts they need to show cause...this company refused to and they got a strike. So who is really to blame for other workers being idled???? Who would accept a 50% paycut because your boss said he needed to do to to remain competitive. Especially if you knew he was getting paid 25% more than teh previous year. Wouldn't you want a bit more information????
The resolved issue
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The company has reinstated health care and disability benefits to injured workers, King said. Those workers should have retained those benefits, despite the union's strike. The same applies to family members who were receiving long-term medical care, such as a surgery or child-birth, before the strike began.
yes this company is a shining example of how "'labor' is screwing capitol and poor capitol is so beneficent in it's treatment of labor
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The Detroit News reported that the company will also reimburse laid off workers for health insurance that was prematurely terminated
I think high gas prices due to market conditions SUCK. It bolsters every petro dictatorship in the world. it is strengthening the Iran and Venezuela. If the price of oil hadn't skyrocketed the iranian economy would be in the shitter and it's own people would of demanded change. i would of much preferred we had levied some taxe on oil when it was cheap to invest in alternative energy research. It would of lessened the demand for gas pigs, it would of forced detroit to shift it's focus before they were all broke and had no money for R&D. it would of prevented the run up of price and the enrichment of those who fund terrorism. The irony in the mideast is it's our dollars paying for those iranian roadside bombs.

over a longer period a sustained drop in the value of a currency leads to a sustained drop in the standard of living in comparison to the world

China's currency is pegged to ours so a declining dollar does nothing to stem the bleeding from our major trade deficit partner.

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Old 04-24-2008, 07:50 AM   #80 (permalink)
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Are you saying tax revenue did not increase after Reagan's tax cut?



.
I am saying the revenue created was not equal to the cuts given. tax cuts do create revenue. Supply Siders have ignored the fact ALL their revenue predictions pre tax cut have been wrong. every time they explode the deficit and promise the increased growth will balance it out it hasn't happened. We had bigger growth after the Bush/Clinton tax increases than after the Bush or Reagan tax cuts.
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Old 04-24-2008, 08:34 AM   #81 (permalink)
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[quote=7thsfsniper;487412]If you ever get to come out and go shooting with me I'll drive us to the range in my 1ton, 425hp, 4x4, crew cab, longbed, Chevy.

I thought the aim was to carry a few guns, not to transport an arsenal!
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Old 04-24-2008, 08:47 AM   #82 (permalink)
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If you ever get to come out and go shooting with me I'll drive us to the range in my 1ton, 425hp, 4x4, crew cab, longbed, Chevy.

I thought the aim was to carry a few guns, not to transport an arsenal!

I could explain but you really need to see it to see it to understand.

When I go to the range, its for the day.......the whole day!
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Old 04-24-2008, 09:51 AM   #83 (permalink)
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I LOVE THIS! It seems everytime I find a new thread to check out, gunnut and ba1025 are going at it already. You guys rock!

Good arguments, I really enjoy reading them.
bA1025 is actually short for the date of the death of the Emperor Basil the 2nd of the eastern empire. He was also known as basil Bulgeratus because when he crushed the Bulgarian army he blinded every 9th person and left every tenth with one eye to lead them home...i may be a bit left leaning but i have np with total war
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Old 04-24-2008, 09:57 AM   #84 (permalink)
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You're wrong about that. In the first place, it was never claimed that lowering taxes will increase revenues. In fact, Laffer clearly stated and his data proved that if taxes are low, then lowering taxes may not increase revenues at all. Laffer only promised that if taxes were high then lowering taxes would increase revenues, and they did. Like most liberal Democrats, you reject the Laffer curve because it didn't balance the budget, didn't cut government spending, didn't redistribute the wealth, and didn't solve social problems, in spite of the fact that Laffer's theory was never intended to do any of those things and Laffer made no such warranties or guarantees.
It's always bandied about as a justification for tax cuts. It isn't Laffer it's people who wield the theory to justify tax cuts. People like Dick Cheney for one. I reject the argument so called conservatives make when they use it to justify increasing deficits through tax cuts. I am fairly fiscally conservative. more so than most in congress on either side of the article. i believe government should pay for itself not be run with a Chinese Visa card. i do believe good government can help people.
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Old 04-24-2008, 10:01 AM   #85 (permalink)
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RJ,

Stupid Businessman is the stupid one. The US has had its cake and eaten it too, while China has a bunch of low yield pieces of paper to show for it (they also saw a huge increase in their economy, so there was a mutually beneficial element to it).

The weakening dollar is part of adjustment process, and so while the metaphor talks about an abrupt transition, the reality is that the transition could be slow and steady. The lack of savings in the US is also a result of more than just cheap consumer goods - dissavings due to the retiring of the first wave of boomers as well as capital gains earned during the 90s by middle America. As long as SE Asia was willing to cover our government debt and the OECD nations were still pouring financial capital to cover some of our investment spending on capital goods, the good times for the consumer was funded.

The party's coming to an end, but rather than being fired at work, what is actually happening is that people are just going home and will have to return to normal life. There may be a slight hang over, but take two aspirin and everything will be fine in the morning.
I think you pegged it pretty good. The problem is we are like alcoholics we want to party more. part of that is either cutting federal spending or not cutting taxes. We cant cut taxes and increase spending and keep partying away. No matter who is running the show next year I hope fiscal policy resembles the year 1999 not the year 2006.
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Old 04-24-2008, 11:06 AM   #86 (permalink)
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Kirk Kerkorian called it when he said if management asks for give backs it needs to be ready to give back. This companies management seems to want to finance their raises with cuts in labor costs

Wow after his bonuses were calculated he got a 25% raise in 2007...and now he cries they can't afford labor costs????? The Union isnt going to give anything back when they see a Delco move by company management. By that I mean...NO SACRIFICE FROM THEM. If the management truly wants to impress upon it's workforce it needs give backs it needs to start giving back not taking more. Has any salaried worker had his pay cut there????? They are part of the cost of production too.

WOW a CEO deserves 25% of the profits??? I would bet the pay of the CEO, Company President and the dozen or so VPs they probably have was more than the total profits of the company. It seems to me that's a bigger issue than paying someone 28 dollars an hr. isn't it a bit much to pay management more money and ask the workforce to accept 50% paycuts????
Lets look at Richard Dauch, That mean evil capitalist.

In 2002 He was recognized as a Michigan person of the year. A little from that article
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To some, it was an aging industrial wreck faced with extinction. But Richard E. Dauch envisioned an urban jewel. And, in a classic feat of entrepreneurship, he led a team in 1994 that wagered more than $1 billion that a dingy, unprofitable General Motors Corp. axle factory could be transformed into a vibrant manufacturing complex.
So how much money did those $70.00 an hour employees wager? You don't put your own money up and not hope to make big on it. He deserves the raise.
He is also running more than one plant. Its a global operation.In addition to locations in the United States (Michigan, New York, Ohio and Indiana), AAM also has offices or facilities in Brazil, China, Germany, India, Japan,Luxembourg, Mexico, Poland, South Korea, Thailand and the United Kingdom(England and Scotland)

All he is asking is that the union accepts the same wage in his factories that they do in his competitors. Vice 3x higher than the going wage.

They have already signed union agreements with their workers in Mexico and the UK.

Crap, My lawyer only charges me $85.00 an hour. Maybe both of us should have got a job as a $70.00 an hour forklift operator at this plant.

Has the union waived the workers dues, since they are living on strike pay?
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Old 04-24-2008, 11:19 AM   #87 (permalink)
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China's currency is pegged to ours so a declining dollar does nothing to stem the bleeding from our major trade deficit partner.
Not true any more in terms of the peg. The Chinese have a managed float, and the yuan has been steaily appreciating for a total of about 15% over the past 3 years. If you look at the numbers, our overall trade deficit has been closing, albeit slowly (however, don't forget to look at the capital financial account, which for a pure float country will tend to have the mirror effect).

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Old 04-24-2008, 11:20 AM   #88 (permalink)
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over a longer period a sustained drop in the value of a currency leads to a sustained drop in the standard of living in comparison to the world
Tell that to China.
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Old 04-24-2008, 12:46 PM   #89 (permalink)
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i may be a bit left leaning but i have np with total war
And thats what I like about you!
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Old 04-25-2008, 04:32 AM   #90 (permalink)
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If you ever get to come out and go shooting with me I'll drive us to the range in my 1ton, 425hp, 4x4, crew cab, longbed, Chevy.

I thought the aim was to carry a few guns, not to transport an arsenal!
Glyn, you need to go shooting with myself, I just had a visit from a shooter from the UK (Army, Artillery, Major), and he was gob smacked at the stuff I have, even the ammo amounts that I'm allowed to hold, etc etc.

I say cut spending, save save save, then we'll end up with a surplus in taxes that collects interest in the bank, paying less being the obvious result.

Crazy I know, I'm getting help.

Cows drink milk too.

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