China may have more avian flu this spring, leader warns
Robert Roos * News Editor
Mar 2, 2006 (CIDRAP News) –
China's vice premier said today that China may see more bird outbreaks and human cases of avian influenza this spring, as the government announced plans for an intensive hunt for cases among wild birds on a major migration route, according to news services.
The news from China came as Germany confirmed that a cat was infected with the deadly H5N1 virus and Serbia reported its first suspected avian flu case in a wild bird, among other developments.
In China, Vice Premier Hui Liangyu said a "comprehensive analysis" indicates that the country is at risk for more trouble with avian flu this spring, according to an Associated Press (AP) story based on a report from the Chinese news agency Xinhua. Hui heads the national office for preventing and controlling the disease, the story said.
In an Agence France-Press (AFP) report, Hui was quoted as saying, "This spring, there is still a possibility that bird flu will erupt and spread in China." Speaking at a national teleconference, he added,
"There is still a risk that the number of human cases will continue to increase."
To at least one expert, the Chinese statement sounded like a hint that avian flu in China is more widespread than the government has been acknowledging.
"Many of us believe that this type of discussion by someone as high as the vice premier really indicates that this situation is already occurring," said Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, publisher of the CIDRAP Web site.
"You don't see these kinds of statements coming out of the government of China very often," he added.
Osterholm said he has been told there is more avian flu in China than has been reported publicly. "I can't say the sources, but there are more [human] cases going on in China than have been released and reported to the World Health Organization. Also, there's information from a variety of sources suggesting the level of bird infections is substantially higher than is being reported."
He said his information came from "sources on the ground in China as well as other informed government sources."
Osterholm added that China and the rest of Asia are still the place where avian flu poses the biggest risk of sparking a human influenza pandemic. "While the spread of the virus around the world is an important consideration, the potential for the ongoing mutation of the virus toward a human-to-human transmitted strain is probably more likely where the high virus density and high bird population exist, and that's in China and the rest of Asia."
He said that all of Africa has fewer than a billion chickens, whereas China produces 15 billion a year. "That's where the genetic roulette table for mutations is," he said.
The AP report from China said the government is setting up an avian flu surveillance system in the eastern province of Jiangsu to focus on wild birds. The system will consist of 100 monitoring stations staffed by 1,000 workers throughout the province.
Experts estimate that about 3 million migratory birds will fly to Jiangsu in the next 2 months and that another 5 million birds will pass through, according to the Xinhua story cited by the AP.
"Inspectors will check dead birds and test droppings, and any sign of bird flu will trigger an emergency response," the AP reported.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/con...0206avian.html