Here's a good solid polling interpretation blog, and basically, since none of the details about the poll are going to be released, there is no way to verify the validity of the methodology, demographics, questions, and conclusions.
Also, the language that the sample respondents were "intercepted" leads me to believe that it wasn't a random sample (e.g. choosing every tenth soldier that eats lunch at the chow hall is not a random sample of all soldiers in Iraq - it doesn't represent soldiers who are out on patrol at lunchtime, who choose not to eat at the chow hall, or for whatever reason don't frequent the lunch meal at the chow hall - so, it is only a random selection of soldiers who eat the noon meal at the chow hall). Since the survey is touted as random, and since the language leads me to believe that it isn't random, the margin of error is probably grossly understated.
Other than the above, there's no other information to go on for actual analysis, other than I found the following statement to be comical and discrediting: "More disclosure could put the interviewers' lives at risk". Why would more disclosure risk the interviewers' lives? Were Iraqis interviewing soldiers with paper questionnaires in the middle of a patrol? I doubt it. Will angry soldiers storm the living quarters of the persons who administered the survey? I'm sure the Code Red orders have already been issued
Quote:
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/...gby_poll_.html
February 28, 2006
The Zogby Poll of Troops in Iraq
MP has received email from several readers asking about a just released survey of troops currently serving in Iraq conducted by Zogby International and noted in Nicholas Kristof's column in the New York Times this morning.
According to the release, Zogby conducted the survey in collaboration with the Center for Peace and Global Studies at Le Moyne College. Those who click through to the Zogby summary will find the following methodology statement:
The survey included 944 military respondents interviewed at several undisclosed locations throughout Iraq. The names of the specific locations and specific personnel who conducted the survey are being withheld for security purposes. Surveys were conducted face-to-face using random sampling techniques. The margin of error for the survey, conducted Jan. 18 through Feb. 14, 2006, is 3.3 percentage points.
I wrote about another survey of troops in Iraq conducted last year by the Military Times newspapers (here and here) and know that polling active duty troops is no easy task. So I sent an email to John Zogby this morning asking if he could describe the survey a bit more in general terms if not in specifics.
Zogby returned my call this afternoon. While not exactly a fan of this site (to put it mildly) he was courteous enough to provide a more in-depth explanation of what his company did and why he is unwilling to disclose more publicly. Unfortunately, the ground rules for our conversation prevent me from sharing much of what he told me. But I did come away convinced that Zogby has good reason to withhold the details of how he was able to interview U.S. troops the way he did. More disclosure could put the interviewers' lives at risk.
Here is what I can say:
The Center for Peace and Global Studies paid Zogby to conduct the study but otherwise played no role in conducting interviews or gathering the data.
According to the procedure Zogby described, respondents were intercepted randomly (e.g. they were not self selected) at multiple locations throughout Iraq (e.g. not just in the so-called "Green Zone") and interviewed using a paper questionnaire that they filled out with the assistance of an interviewer.
Zogby was willing to share the specific geographic locations where they collected data on the condition I not repeat them. I passed on the offer as my knowledge of Iraq and military operations there is cursory at best, but I have no doubt his offer was genuine.
Zogby provided Nick Kristof and others reporting on the poll full details about his methodology on an "off-the-record" basis.
So in short, I can tell you that Zogby found a creative solution to the difficult problem of polling troops in Iraq, but I promised to say no more than that. I asked Zogby what advice he would offer data consumers who find this all puzzling. In this case, he said, "you have to trust me."
PS: I neglected a hat tip to the reader who blogs at Fickle Minded and first emailed me about the Zogby poll.
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