World Affairs Board - View Single Post - US draws up plans for full aerial blitz of Iran

Garry · 02-14-2006, 04:05 AM

US administration did mistake invading Iraq.... while it must have deat with Afghanistan, North Korea and Iran. While also pushing India and Pakistan for nuclear disarmanent.

Now mistaken invasion into Iraq makes trouble to a real threat - nuclear weapons in Iran.

Iran does not have good air defense cause it was having quite independent policy in 1970-80es.... Iran made himself an adversary of two superpowers - USA/NATO and USSR/Warsaw Pact. Both were favoring Iraq in its attack against Iran.

In 1990-es Russia has delivered some land weapons (BMP-2 and some tanks) to Iran.... but it was ceased after Eltsin agreed with Clinton that no more deliveries after 1995..... in 2002 Russia has withdrew from this agreement after US withdrew from several cold war agreements and start active flirting with Georgia over NATO accession. Since then Iran received some more BMP-2s and tanks.... but not a crutial amount. In addition to that Iran has bought some Mig-29 from Kazakhstan, Moldavia and Ukraine. But these were models produced in early 1980-es and have almost 80% of their engine resource used out.... meaning that Iranian pilots can not use them activelly for training or patroling.

The air defense was something which Iranies were begging for years since 2002 withdrawal..... However Russia wanted Iran to be flexible on some other issues in Central Asia and did not sell its air defense systems for until 2005 when Iran feeling urgency made some good concessions on its oil politics in Caspian Region.... (agreed to make all possible problems to Caspian underwater pipeline from Kazakhstan to Baku + prolong uncertainty over the status of the sea + do not consider building pipeline from Caspian coast to Persian Gulf). Iran signed on delivery of Tor-M1 short range tactical SAMs and repair and upgrade of its MiG-29 fighters. In addition to that they were negotiating for old S-200 and S-300 acquisition from storage of Russian army (which is now transfering to S-400).

In January Russia has slowed down delivery of Tor-M1 and upgradess to MiG-29.... after Iran resumed enrichment. So far not even one launcher is delivered.... Russia don't want Iran to be nuclear state....

Still bombing NATANZ will not help much.... Iranians do not yet have a BIG ENRICHMENT site worth bombing. And they will probably go for many smaller sites => hard to bomb them or even locate them.

02-14-2006, 04:05 AM	#9 (permalink)
Garry *Defense Professional* Join Date: 06-18-04 Posts: 1,643	US administration did mistake invading Iraq.... while it must have deat with Afghanistan, North Korea and Iran. While also pushing India and Pakistan for nuclear disarmanent. Now mistaken invasion into Iraq makes trouble to a real threat - nuclear weapons in Iran. Iran does not have good air defense cause it was having quite independent policy in 1970-80es.... Iran made himself an adversary of two superpowers - USA/NATO and USSR/Warsaw Pact. Both were favoring Iraq in its attack against Iran. In 1990-es Russia has delivered some land weapons (BMP-2 and some tanks) to Iran.... but it was ceased after Eltsin agreed with Clinton that no more deliveries after 1995..... in 2002 Russia has withdrew from this agreement after US withdrew from several cold war agreements and start active flirting with Georgia over NATO accession. Since then Iran received some more BMP-2s and tanks.... but not a crutial amount. In addition to that Iran has bought some Mig-29 from Kazakhstan, Moldavia and Ukraine. But these were models produced in early 1980-es and have almost 80% of their engine resource used out.... meaning that Iranian pilots can not use them activelly for training or patroling. The air defense was something which Iranies were begging for years since 2002 withdrawal..... However Russia wanted Iran to be flexible on some other issues in Central Asia and did not sell its air defense systems for until 2005 when Iran feeling urgency made some good concessions on its oil politics in Caspian Region.... (agreed to make all possible problems to Caspian underwater pipeline from Kazakhstan to Baku + prolong uncertainty over the status of the sea + do not consider building pipeline from Caspian coast to Persian Gulf). Iran signed on delivery of Tor-M1 short range tactical SAMs and repair and upgrade of its MiG-29 fighters. In addition to that they were negotiating for old S-200 and S-300 acquisition from storage of Russian army (which is now transfering to S-400). In January Russia has slowed down delivery of Tor-M1 and upgradess to MiG-29.... after Iran resumed enrichment. So far not even one launcher is delivered.... Russia don't want Iran to be nuclear state.... Still bombing NATANZ will not help much.... Iranians do not yet have a BIG ENRICHMENT site worth bombing. And they will probably go for many smaller sites => hard to bomb them or even locate them. Last edited by Garry : 02-14-2006 at 04:50 AM.