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Originally Posted by Commando
This is why this nuclear crisis can not just be played down and solved with time. We need either quick and harsh action by the UN, or pre emptive strikes by Israel.
Even if oil prices reach $400 a barrel we need to take action.
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[SWIFT SWORD'S GO AMERICA RANT MODE ON]
(And Bluesman thought I did not have a nationalist bone in my ideological body
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This is way to important to leave to the Israelis or the UN. Regardless of the course of action (acceptance, military or diplomatic), the Bush Administration needs to develop a comprehensive Iran policy and demonstrate robust leadership on the matter, something it should have done at least two years ago.
I was a firm believer in the idea of some sort of European brokered solution, but I suspect the time for such action is passing.
I am skeptical that Israel has the intelligence and strike assets to effectively preempt the Iranian program.
While the US easily has the strike assets, I am wondering just how good our intelligence on the matter is as well given the gaps in US intelligence used for WMD preemption in both ODS and OIF. If the US chooses to preempt, it is going to get only one shot to do it right or it has to choose between a nuclear armed Iran or a full on invasion (IMO, of course, but I am open to suggestions).
Any outcome at this point is going to have significant fallout (the situation is not funny...might as well be punny...
) so the US depending on the UN or Russian and Chinese goodwill or the idea that there will not be some sort of nasty backlash to any Israeli action would be the acme of asshattedness.
The Bush Administration has a few options for unilateral action:
1. do nothing AND/OR plan on containing and deterring a nuclear armed Iran;
2. forget the other parties and send a special envoy directly to Tehran to see if there us any definable compromise;
3. robust economic sanctions against ANY countries or ANY companies or ANY individuals doing ANY businees with Iran weapons related or otherwise...f*** 'em if they won't play ball. Breakout an Alien Property Commission and start start seizing assets and freezing accounts.
Sure this would have a short term negative impact on the US economy but we go into the fight healthier than those trying to pimp us and are more likely to recover faster, IMO. Besides, this is about the security of the Citizens of the United States and that of their Allies and Interests overseas, not, as Khomeni might say "...the price of melons";
4. take military action on one or more of three levels: punitive strike, WMD preemption strike or outright invasion and regime change.
These are naturally not mutually exclusive and it may take a combination or all of them to see that US interests are met. Even though I am advocating unilateral action if neccessary, I suspect that US interests and the interests of many other actors are overlapping here so there should be no lack of silent partners and hot tips.
Some other comments and miscellany:
1. With regards to Option #1 above, the international system does have a history of being able to absorb and balance out nuclear proliferators and in some instances roll them back (there is your cold comfort contingency, at any rate);
2. Might be time to take out some leases from the newly minted Afghan and Iraqi governments for TABM/ABM facilities in their countries. These should at least be early warning radars and sensors to monitor Iranian missle testing but there maybe more options.
GBI sites in either country might be close enough to provide the desirable boost phase interception against launches towards Israel and Europe as well as mid course interception against launches against Israel. Too, there would be terminal phase interception options for strikes launched against targets inside of Iraq and Afghnistan;
3. The US is in a position that Kissinger has articulated in the past: it is seeking hegemony and the thing about hegemony is that you have to be strong enough to assert it or the only other option is balanced power. My concern is that based on US action over the last several years the strength to assert hegemony might be at the threshold level which means that any action must be timely, accurate and decisive.
4. What happens next is going to determine what the security and economic climate of Central Asia and the Gulf Region is going to look like for at least the next twenty five to fifty years, IMO, so there is little margin for error.
The Bush Administration needs to pipe up and Congress needs to take its collective faces out of the trough or we will all with certainty feel the thunderbolt.
[SWIFT SWORD'S GO AMERICA RANT MODE OFF]
Regards,
William