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Originally Posted by Garry
back to Israel air strickes. They are possible in 2006 and 07
Syrian and Irani air defenses are weak.... but may be enfored if Israel starts attacking them.
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But Israeli stocks of modern weapons are also limited. 1973 demonstrated the superiority of Western tanks, but also demonstrated the effectiveness of Russian surface to air missiles (at shooting down aircraft from both sides).
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The only reason why it is not delievered - Russia does not need them strong...... but dependent. And Russia does not want them to challenge US.....
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The US might allow Israeli air strikes over Iraqi air space... but they won't allow the Iranians to hit back through American defenses.
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As for effectiveness. It would take more than just few precision strikes to destrong their nuclear industry. Israel will not solve this issue with one sortie nor even with few..... it requires thousands tons of explosives delivered to targets -i.e. around 500-1000 sorties.
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I agree that it would take more than a few air strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear program. I'm not so sure about 500, but clearly more than Israel is capable of launching at a target that far away.
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So my conslusion. ISRAEL NEEDS NUCLEAR WARHEADS ON MANY SUBS.... URGENT AND CREADIBLE
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Their mobile launchers should tide them over for a while to come. It will take a bit of time before Iran develops counter-force capability, even when they do acquire nukes.