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Originally Posted by lwarmonger
Also true, but I doubt Russia would go nuclear because a few of their ships/planes/trucks in a declared war zone were destroyed.
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Domestic pressure results in strange decisions. There is always a threshold for anybody after which it is anybody's guess.
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Originally Posted by lwarmonger
But Russia can no longer afford to supply those enemies for free, and most of them don't have the money to pay. We can supply their enemies for free.
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This is the fundamental point. They would supply
Nuclear weapons or Dirty bombs for free which US would never do. And that is the problem. Conventional weapons still mean very little against a nuke.
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Originally Posted by lwarmonger
I am not saying that many of the former Soviet republics would go to war with Russia, but many of them have very shaky regimes that could easily fall to be replaced by pro-Western governments. Also, I would remind you of the Chechans and Georgians who infiltrated into Russia and caused havoc during the 1990's. If we actively started encouraging and arming such activity, Russia would have significant problems dealing with it.
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1) To be frank none of the erstwhile soviet republics would go to war with Russia with the exception of the Chechens and the European baltic states.
2) Can you name regions other than Chechnya(caucasus) where your policy of stoking low-intensity armed conflict would work? Further still would Russia be troubled by them.
3) If Russia decided enough is enough and invaded those countries, I will guarantee that Europe will sit back and watch. It will again be left to the US to run the gamut, hence my point about Nuclear war.
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Originally Posted by lwarmonger
Turkey would not fight the United States over this. They know the outcome of such a conflict. In the UN, we (and the Kurds) could easily argue "self-determination" and make it stick. Besides, a long term American military presence in Kurdistan would ensure their protection (and autonomy) for quite some time to come (from all of their neighbors) regardless of whether we recognize their independence. I think the Kurds would be happy with that as well.
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1) Turkey may not fight the US but it can cause serious problems in the islamic world all over again for the US. Any kurd action towards independance will be viewed as a US oil conspiracy. The entire region would be destabilised.
2) Self-Determination would be shot to pieces at the UNSC. Russia has chechnya, China has XinJiang (With a large uighur muslim population) and UK has northern Ireland, any vote in favor of Kurd right to self determination would stir up a hornet's nest.
3) But yes, you may be able to appease the kurds to shutup and not talk about Independance.