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Originally Posted by lwarmonger
Russia will sell to anyone with money. We have no need of their products, and so there is no reason to buy stuff from them. Hence, there is very little we can offer the Russians to stop them from selling weapons to Iran.
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You may always pay more. There must be something - stick or carrot.... you don't really have stick. So look in your pocket for a good carrot. If you don't offer something nobody will listen to you....
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Originally Posted by lwarmonger
Untrue. Up until now, we have merely been accepting (albiet gladly) these pro-Western democratic movements that have been taking place in the Russian sphere of influence. We could begin actively supporting them in nations that still possess "pro-Moscow" regimes. That is definately a bargaining chip. So is shipping weapons and specialists to all of those Muslim republics that still want to become free of Moscow. Not just Chechnya, but a lot of the territories in the south could easily spill over into Russia proper if given the proper equipment. You equip our enemies, we'll equip yours.
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US did accept everything which suited their interests - Georgia and Ukraine. Kyrgyzstan happened against the will of both Russia and US.... just because this things can not be really controlled. When people are poor and hate their government with US or without US they will raise. Kazakhstan was interesting as a stable state for both US and Russia + there is economic growth there and people are fed well..... hard to bring revolution in there. Azerbaijan is poor and its government is TERRIBLY corrupt.... both US and Russia supported it as their interests coinside. So US has no leverage here cause THEY MADE NO CONSESSIONS BUT JUST FOLLOWED THEIR INTERESTS. Putin knows this.....
In general all of those states are so dependent to Russia that US has only limited leverage there. Some have not oil & gas or industrial production, others have oil but have to pass through Russia. And absolutelly all depend on Russian electricity. I don't mention other markets which Russia provides to them. You are far away and Russians are near - so except or emotional Georgians nobody will even dare to spoil relationships with them for you.
As for weapons..... Whom exactly would you supply your weapons? Tadjikistan? Ha-ha. Uzbeks? Ha-ha-ha. Kazakhstan? may be but this changes nothing. Turkmenistan? Same as Kazakhstan. Ukraine? Ha-ha-ha. Georgians? They don't have cash to pay their debts. Azeri? Yes they need it. Go on sell them. Armerians? Foreget about it. Chechens? Ha-ha-ha part of it goes to Hezbollakh
You don't have an ace in this issue.
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Originally Posted by lwarmonger
Perhaps, but I doubt that too many in the Bush administration also want to repeat the mistakes of the past... such as allowing Russian ships to dock in Haiphong harbor unmolested, or not touching the Chinese railheads supplying the NVA with arms. If we declare Iranian territory to be a war zone, then anything in it, Russian or not, would become a potential target. Russia would not fight us over such a thing, especially as it is a fight they would lose.
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I doubt this…..
Do you know why these "mistakes" were done? Because nobody then wanted to turn a small conflict in Vietnam into A REALLY BIG WAR like in Korea. Nobody wanted to give Chinese or Russians any good reasons to step in openly….
Nobody dared to attack Russian ships even when blockading Cuba. Ships were just crossing course of the transporters to stop them.... nobody even thought of shooting of getting on board. Because what ever war zone ANY STATE declares - any action like this in neutral waters is a DECLARATION OF WAR by all international standards. So you may do it only hidden... not admitting you did it.... just like pirate
Another issue for your notice - Sweden ships delivering goods to Nazi Germany in WWII were never sunk officially but only anonymously and only by submarines ..... why? To avoid Sweden joining Germany..... they never bombed their mines supplying German army with ferrous ores and metal.... though Churchill considered this initially. Only now they have revealed that Royal NAVY submarines did sink few sweds…. At that time nobody even though of admitting that.
Sinking neutral ship - Louisitania, openly and officially by German submarine lead to DECLARATION OF WAR by USA against Germany in 1917. And that was a credible and justified reason. Remember?
I highly doubt that ANY of the Captains in NAVY will get permission to sink Russian transporter officially or even attack it. It will hard your country more than all the content of the ship delivered. Knowing this Russian ships will never stop if they have order to go……
There is only one possibility to legitimate seizure of a ship in a neutral waters – UN Embargo regime. Nothing like this is now in force.
Another issue is that Putin will not want a situation when some US captain makes a stupid move and Russian public demands a revenge….. This goes far to beyond interests. So he will ship goods through Caspian Sea, or by air
Remember – NATO fighters did not do anything to Russian An-124 flying from Belgrade with remains of F-117 when it refused to follow their orders. Even most hot heads among military were clearly aware what such action would have meant…… This despite the fact that NATO declared that the sky of Yugoslavia was closed for non-regular flights.
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Originally Posted by lwarmonger
Putin has proven to be a most unreliable "friend" of the Bush administration. I doubt that we have much more to say to him regarding concessions. Don't get me wrong... I think the man is highly intelligent and definitely a good thing for Russia (which needs strong leadership). However, that being said, I doubt that President Bush and President Putin have much to talk about at this point..
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There is always a subject to trade about. US broke from several agreements – NATO expansion, anti missile defense, “temporary” bases in Central Asia and many others. Russia has unilaterally cancelled Gor – Chernomyrdin agreements on arms deliveries to Iran, and delays withdrawal from Georgia and Moldova. So both do not trust each other any more.
If you can use stick – use it. If you don’t think you have it, look for a carrot. A nice offer would be always considered….. but no more payment with Checks…. US Checks offering future benefits will not be accepted.
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Originally Posted by lwarmonger
We have all of Iraq. I guarantee you that the Kurds will assist us if it would ensure a permanent US military presence in their territory.
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Look at the map…. A-10 have just 400km combat range. There are so many places which are not accessible by this small bird. Eshfahan enrichment site is clearly beyond that....
Kurds will be a help undoubtfully. And this help will be valuable. But they will ask their price – independent state….. talk to Turks first.