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Ray · 10-28-2005, 16:32 PM

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Indo-Pakistan Talks – Myths, Delusions and Fantasies!!

Guest Column: By Arindam Banerji

“Indian economy is being bled white by the Kashmir conflict”, “India’s economy will never take off till Kashmir is solved” … yada, yada, yada – we’ve all heard way too much of this nonsense. So, now let’s take in a dose of reality:

Fact #1. "Citing the 18.05 per cent rise in exports, Jaitley said, with this India share in the world exports in merchandise goods has increased from 0.4 per cent in 1992-93 to 0.7 per cent in 2001-02 and 0.8 per cent in 2003. If the present trend is maintained, we might even reach one per cent share in world exports before the target year of 2007," he said." – IE

Fact #2. “Despite an overall sluggish growth, many sectors in the economy are growing. And, growing at very handsome rates too. According to an ET Intelligence Group study, a large number of industries are growing at rates over 10%. Iraq or not, and SARS be damned. Compared to the growth rate of the real economy, that’s stupendous” – TNN

Fact #3. “During … 1995-99 China’s value added per worker stood lower at $2,885 per year against India’s $3,118.” – Business Standard

Fact #4. “A.T. Kearney ranks India as the preferred country overall for offshore business processing, followed by Canada, Brazil … Australia, Russia and China.” – atkearny.com

Fact #5. “Auto part exports to rise over 100% to $2bn in 2 years” – ET

Fact #6. “Today, Bharat Forge has cemented its position as one of the world's largest axle-component manufacturers, with a 50% market share in the U.S.” – Business Week

Fact #7. “General Atlantic Partners’ $107 million investment in Mumbai-based Patni Computer Systems last year has emerged as the biggest private equity deal in the Asia Pacific region in 2002. India clocked the second highest funding in the region at $ 406 million after Australia, which pulled in $ 450 million. China ranked fifth down the order ($ 162 million).” – ET

Fact #8. “India’s services sector has emerged among the top-five fastest growing in the world during 1990-2001, surpassing its track record in the 1980s. According to the World Development Indicators, 2003, …India’s services sector clocked an average 7.9% growth per annum between 1990 and 2001, against 6.9% between 1980 and 1990, beating the global rate of 3.1%.” – ET

Fact #9. “Agricultural and processed food exports rose … 23% during April-October 2002” – ET

Fact #10. “Steel exports to US zoom 13 fold. …while India exported 70,000 tonnes of steel to the US during April-December 2001, it exported close to a million tonnes during April-December 2002 “ – ET

Fact #11. “Electronics components' exports have posted a 20.35 per cent rise in 2001-02 to Rs 2200 crore compared to Rs 1,828 crore in 2000-01, according to an estimate by Electronics and Computer Software Export Promotion Council.” – ET

Fact #12. “India is fast emerging as the growth engine for multinational companies. Indian subsidiaries of MNCs are clocking better growth rates than their global parents both in terms of sales and net income … ABB, Nestle, LG, Samsung, Philips, Goodyear, Pfizer, Whirlpool, Siemens are all beating their global headquarters in performance scales and some of them are clocking double-digit growth …” – ET

Does it really look like India is being held back by the whole Kashmir imbroglio?

Of course not – most of this is pure nonsense spread by our not-so-friendly neighbor and some of their stooges in the Indian media. So, let us drop some of pre-conceived notions and help take a look at these talks from the Indian perspective – and not the Pakistani perspective or the communist-anarchist perspective or even the US perspective. Step one – is to take a harsh look at the spurious axioms that regularly waft across the border.

11 deadly myths

Myths that primarily benefit Pakistan have become inter-twined with reality to an extent that it is often very difficult to distinguish between the two. One famous example is the “800000 Indian forces in Kashmir” canard, which defies all known maths, even fuzzy maths. Yet another good one is the “being anti-Pakistan, is anti-Muslim” sermon repeated endlessly by our neighborhood communists; promptly insulting all Indian Muslims in the process. Most of us in India get brain-washed with such specious arguments quite regularly. Vir Sanghvi in HT does a good job of busting some of these myths; but many more are in circulation.

Myth #1 India will never take its rightful place until Kashmir is solved. Not true.

As we’ve seen the Indian economy is doing just fine – thank you. In the last few months, CEOs of Dell, IBM, Microsoft, Intel and Sun have made a beeline for India, despite the happenings in Kashmir. France just invited India to the G-8 meetings and Russia’s first large naval war-gaming in a decade is being held with the Indian navy. UK, France, Russia and key members of the US Congress support our candidacy for permanent membership in the UN Security Council. Finally, India is well on its way to becoming a trillion dollar economy before the end of this decade – the geopolitical implications of this economic strength are well understood even by Pakistan. For example, we have already acquired and are beginning to use our geopolitical muscle to force key arms vendors to reduce the amount of business that they do with Pakistan.

If anything is holding India back, it’s certainly not the putrid thinking of Hafeez Saeed “killing Hindus is the way forward” and his look-alikes in Pakistan, but our own ubiquitous corruption. But that’s a story for another day.

Myth #2 Solving Kashmir will end Pakistani terrorism. This has nothing to do with reality.

Unfortunately, Pakistan has been carrying out terrorism against India all through the 50 odd years of its life. In the fifties, when the Kashmir issue had died down, it was openly supporting terrorism in Mizoram and Musharraf himself is on record claiming “the acquisition of Kashmir by Pakistan can wait. What is more important is to keep the Indian army bleeding in Kashmir just as the Afghan Mujahideen kept the Soviet troops bleeding in Afghanistan”. Pakistani intent against India, goes far beyond Kashmir and in reality the ultimate goal has nothing to do with Kashmir.

Make no mistake about Pakistan’s true intentions with India, irrespective of the JNU jhola-wallahs tell you. Quoting Nabiullah Khan, a key adviser to perhaps the most powerful religious-political organization in Pakistan, Jamaat-E-Islami(JEI),

“Kashmir is the keystone for India. Once you remove that, then India can no longer be secular and it will not be a united country either… The ultimate aim of Operation Topac is to make India (into) a million pieces so that it is easy for Pakistan to swallow India once piece at a time. That is why Pakistan was encouraging the militancy movements all over India. Once Kashmir is taken out, these militancy movements will break India by asking the similar freedom for Nagaland, Kerala, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Manipur, Assam, Jharkand, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Khalistan. But Benazir destroyed our whole plan by giving away the details of the Operation Topac to Indian government led by Rajiv Gandhi. That was a big set back for our vision. But yet we are moving ahead.”.

There are equivalent statements from folks like Hamid Gul, ex-ISI head and others – so, the intent of Pakistanis beyond Kashmir is well documented. The bomb blasts in Mumbai, threats to put the Pakistani flag on Red Fort and the merciless cleansing of Indians in the North East with help from the ISI, only make this amply clear. After Kargil, Lt. Colnel Ludra’s description of Pakistan’s operation Sierra Tango, as an effort to “destroy India's social as well as economic cohesiveness”, seems to be well under-way.

Nonetheless, India as a country of a billion people is not a push-over, but let’s not buy into this insipid thinking of India-Pakistani bhai-bhai, when the leading Pakistani political groups want to swallow India. So, the next time someone says, “peace between the two is predicated on the resolution of the core issue of Kashmir”, please check to see if their nose has grown any longer.

Myth #3 External factors are responsible for Pakistani terrorism – US imperialism, Indian animosity…Yeah! And pigs can fly.

The usual whine is “Pakistan is not at fault”, “Pakistanis cannot help themselves, but resort to terrorism”, all thanks to Indian animosity, Israel-Palestine or even US imperialism. Such claims are pure flights of fantasy. On the contrary, Pakistani terrorism is almost entirely a product of the culture that has been created by the media and education system in the country.

Consider for example the picture that Harvard terrorism expert Jessica Stern paints in her articles about the mujahideen culture in Pakistan – disconcerting, to say the least. It appears jihadi terrorism has not only become a way of life in Pakistan, but also a well respected one. Indian newspapers have frequently reported that jihadi terrorists often earn thousands of rupees a month, with large life-insurance payouts on martyrdom. We all knew this, didn’t we; but want to know why this happens.

Urdu textbooks for children as young as second graders (for seven year olds, that is) recommend that “Infidels are cowards by nature”. “When a holy warrior attacks them, they (infidels) scream with terror and fear” and mujahideen are “glorified as the alpha male on a mission from God. They are the superheroes that kill Hindus, fashion all sorts of gadgets from found material, and make the infidel world cower in fear”. In essence, the basics of jihad and terrorism are well learnt and indoctrinated from a young age onwards. Unfortunately, Indians were building up institutions like IIT and IISc, the Pakistanis were building up institutions like Binori and Haqqania madrassas. Perhaps, the worst news about Pakistan – its education system doubles as a mass indoctrination system for jihadi terror; Pakistan it seems has learnt well from the indoctrination systems for children built up by the Nazis and more recently by the Palestinians. This education system is slowly but surely turning Pakistan into one giant terrorist training camp.

Within the next decade, this trend in education is going to ensure that all leaders, in all walks of life will be Islamist radicals at heart. Already, we see that the army, the education system, the government (the MMA last week passed Taliban like edicts) and of course, religious leaders are set in this mould. The jihadi implosion of Pakistan is well under way and cannot be stopped by peace in Kashmir. In short, even if we give Pakistan all of Kashmir, they will always have jihadi terror to wage – if it’s not in Kashmir, there’ll be the Israel, or perhaps the US, or Russia maybe, definitely the rest of India or wherever else they deem necessary to kill unarmed women and children.

This culture of hatred towards non-muslims and intolerance gets ingrained early and is widespread enough to affect national media and newspapers. Children growing up become the perfect fodder for terrorist activities – little training is necessary. The results can be quite devastating. Pakistanis, driven by this intolerance have ethnically cleansed out almost all non-muslims from their country – starting with 20% non-Muslims, today hardly 3% non-Muslims remain. As ICG has analyzed, attempts to moderate the education system has never resulted in any serious efforts to change the curriculum, even though Pakistanis have happily accepted aid money for the same.

Good luck to anyone who thinks that they can get rid of Pakistani terrorism. Twenty years of efforts by Pakistani government have ensured that the terrorist infrastructure is the one of the only strong institutions left in the country. Terrorism’s here to stay and even the Pakistani army or Uncle Sam’s coddling cannot dent this indoctrinated cultural urge. The hard question is how do you detoxify generations of Pakistanis who have grown up with jihadi terrorism on their minds – Nazi Germany’s indoctrinated kids were mostly taken care of by the second world war and occupation by the Soviets and Americans. What do you do for the Pakistanis?

Myth #4 Getting rid of Poverty in Pakistan will get rid of terrorism. Nope.

Unfortunately, Pakistani terrorism has nothing at all to do with the poverty in that nation, even though some poor people may join jihadi terrorist activities. Consider the following proof-points:

1. Highly educated and well-off Pakistani youth from the UK regularly immerse themselves into terrorism

2. Pakistani woman with a Ph.D. from MIT is chased half way around the world for her links with Al Qaeda

3. Highly qualified Pakistani doctors investigated by the FBI for their strong connections to terrorists and providing shelter to them

4. Pakistani nuclear scientists discuss nuclear weapons with terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda

5. Pakistan has made terrorism an accepted way of life - with monthly salaries and life insurance; further, being a terrorist martyr carries immense prestige for the family

6. High society Pakistanis like Hasnat Khan who almost married Diana – has links to terror groups; turns out that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the “operational chief for 911” was arrested at the home of Hasnat Khan’s cousin

7. 82% of Pakistani adult males love and support Osama; further in CBS 65minutes – Pakistani kids in elite western schools sing praises of Mujahideen, while at the same time lusting after an education in Cornell/Columbia.

8. Highly educated and rich Pakistani businessmen, distributing sweets on their son being accepted into the LeT terrorist/jihadi cadre – SATribune

9. Educated leaders of Pakistan, including Musharraf support and sing praises for jihadi terrorism and try desperately to separate out good terrorism from bad terrorism

10. A relatively well-off Pakistan of 1971, perpetrated one of the worst genocides of the last 50 years

Money and positions in society are not sufficient conditions to completely cleanse Pakistani elite of radical jihadi tendencies. There’s absolutely no proof that improving the Pakistani economy will do anything to change Pakistani society’s fascination with perpetrating terrorism.

Myth #5 A stable strong Pakistan is in India’s best interests. False.

Paraphrasing Sanghvi, the only time we’ve had a quiet Pakistan, was after they as a nation felt discombobulated post-1971. Pakistan as a nation, survives on baksheesh from donors across the world and in return exports terrorism that kills people world-wide – what an excellent deal. The intent of these donations and debt write-offs is to prevent Pakistan from giving nukes and other Chinese goodies to rogue nations or terrorists organizations like Al Qaeda. From time-to-time, people do wake-up and notice that Pakistani nuclear scientists have been talking to Al Qaeda and North Korea is talking about lighting up the Korean Peninsula with Pakistani provided fireworks. At such times, Pakistan quickly “catches” some Al Qaeda big-wig with amazing ease to reduce the pressure; soon of course everything is back to normal at terrorism-central.

Even Pakistan’s measly textile exports are protected through quotas which are obtained through threats of decreased stability – which is code for “increase our textile quotas or we increase terrorism”. It is not a coincidence that almost every international terrorist attack on the US in the last few years can be traced back to Pakistan or Pakistanis; neither is it a coincidence that Pakistani terrorists have been caught in almost every part of the world, including UK, US, Spain, France, Algeria, India and Kuwait. [http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/

MONITOR/ISSUE5-2/narayanan.html].

Just in one day’s news (that is, yesterday) – the following Pakistani links appeared: In Indonesian trials of Bali bombers, Mukhlas, an Indonesian, said he went to Pakistan in 1989, met Arab mujahideen there; while in Cambodia, authorities closed down a school linked to terror groups and deported teachers/dependents from countries including Pakistan. Just another day for the land of the pure.

Bernard-Henri Levy’s recently published book says “Pakistan is the most delinquent of nations” and claiming that Pakistan was the real key to all Islamic-led international terrorism, he said that the US had solved only 1% of the problem by deposing Saddam Hussein. We all know about Nancy Powell’s statement on Pakistan being a “platform for terror”, but here’s what Mike Evanoff, the US embassy's (in Islamabad) chief of diplomatic security, the State Department's version of the Secret Service, said about Pakistan on Nightline: "This is the epicenter for terrorism.". Richard Behar of Fortune, calls Pakistan a dysfunctional nation or Problemistan as "It is the most unstable nuclear power in the world, a land where even the best intentions are undermined by some of the world's worst economic conditions….a list of Pakistan's problems reads like an encyclopedia of disaster”. IntelligenceOnline.net reports “A recent DIA survey has revealed that sixty-five per cent terror groups operating in South and Central Asia have their roots in Pakistan while the rest are indirectly linked to it.”. Enough said.

Thus, Pakistan is not just an Indian problem, it is the whole world’s problem. Make no mistake about it, the world with Pakistan in it, is not a better place – especially if current trends continue. And no, this is no Akhand Bharat plot – if things continue as they are, a Pakistan that flies the PLA flag or even the Star - Spangled Banner in Islamabad is a far better option for the world, even if it may not be all to India’s liking.

Myth #6 Opening up trade with Pakistan will greatly benefit India. False, again.

Cement sells for Rs. 220 a bag in Lahore, while it is easily available for Rs. 135 in India. The same 10 tablets of Zinetac-glaxo medication that cost Rs 7.20 in India, are readily available for Rs. 80 in Pakistan. The Maruti-800 that costs 2.13 lakhs in India can cost up to 2.85 lakhs in Pakistan. Indian tires are better in quality and at their retail prices are cheaper than the factory prices of Pakistani made tires. This list goes on and on. But who benefits from this trade, if Pakistan gets better and cheaper access to medicines, manufactured goods, automobiles and practically all kinds of raw materials under the sun? Of course, the Pakistani consumer will benefit somewhat through cheaper access to goods – but, who is the biggest beneficiary?

First and foremost – the Pakistani Army. Farrukh Saleem, talking about the army’s ownership of all aspects of Pakistani economy, says

“Fauji Cereal has been part of my daily breakfast for as long as I can remember. The only wrapping that Fauji Cereal ever uses comes from Fauji Poly Propylene Products. During my days at the village, milk used to come from the nearby Okara Military Farms, the 17,000-acre dairy, meat and grain-producing project. The only sugar that I ever liked was either from the four Fauji Sugar Mills or Army Welfare Sugar Mills.

Fauji also owns and operates Fauji Corn Complex, FONGAS, Fauji Fertilizer Company, Fauji Jordan Company, Fauji Oil Terminal Company Project and Mari Gas Company. I was so happy to see Askari Commercial Bank open up shop. …Then there's Askari Leasing; auto lease, machinery financing, CNG Equipment Financing. You name Askari will lease it to you.

Army Welfare Trust is perhaps the most creative. They are running Askari Stud Farms, Askari Fish Farms, Army Welfare Shoe Project, Commercial Plazas and Askari Guards (guards is the only venture that has actually helped retired lower ranks). Then there's Askari Welfare Rice Mill, Askari Welfare Pharmaceutical Project, Magnetite Refineries Limited, Army Welfare Woolen Mill, Army Welfare Hosiery Unit, Askari Welfare Saving Scheme, Askari Associate Limited, Askari Information Service, Askari Power Limited and Askari Commercial Enterprises.”

The list goes on and on. Any benefit to the Pakistani economy directly and almost completely benefits the Pakistani army. Do we really want to venture fund the Pakistani army’s activities and personnel?

Now let us look at the other side of the coin - what is in this trade for India?

The numbers compared to India’s total trade just aren’t very attractive - we gain a small market comparable to Bihar and West Bengal – nothing to write home about. Remember, today the total trade between China and Pakistan is about $1bn, so given the size of the Indian economy what we end up getting is peanuts. Are we stupid enough to believe that increasing the wealth of the Pakistani army will result in them becoming any more civilized? Will they kill fewer Indians? Look closely at the indoctrination programs, oops- education system, and you’ll see that the solution does not lie in trade. If we’re not careful, we’ll end up selling Pakistanis inexpensive life-saving medicines and they’ll happily keep taking those of ours and our children. This has happened before, you know – take a look at how Pakistanis repay us for the life-giving waters of the Indus.

Some misled souls – both Indians and Americans tend to believe that starting trade with the Pakistanis will suddenly transform them into a civilized people. To such people, I can only offer the example of Saudi Arabia, a country whose culture Pakistanis tend to idolize. Saudi Arabians have prospered on trade with the US and survive primarily due to US technology and security, but all this has not dimmed their strong desire to kill innocent American women and children. Why would Pakistan, which often takes its cues from the most radical of the Saudis, be any different? Wishful thinking is fine, but let us not mislead the nation based on our fantasies of being able to reform Pakistan.

Myth #7 RSS/VHP hardliners are vitiating the chances for peace. False.

The patriot law was passed without a murmur after 9/11 by the US congress – this law does quash quite a few civil liberties. The FBI has used this very effectively to go after anyone and everyone, it deems a “potential suspect”. The truth of the matter is that before 9/11, this same law would never have seen the light of day – the reason it passed is that Americans in general had hardened after the Sept. 11 attacks. This same thing is happening against Pakistani terrorism and Pakistani intent towards us, in most parts of India. I personally know hardened leftists who would squeal with delight when talking about China, now recommend strong-arm tactics against Pakistan. Seeing Pakistani brutality and seeing reports about the beheading of women and children on a weekly basis year after year does such things to you. RSS/VHP have been around for years, but, now it is the nature of India, that has changed. Indians are angry and our leaders are beginning to learn how to flex our resurgent economic muscle – not a good sign for the Pakistani nation. The hardening of India against Pakistan has happened – like it or not. The strengthening of RSS/VHP is a result of this hardening of Indian opinion and not the other way around. This anger was not perpetrated by the right-wingers, but by the incessant killing of Indian citizens by the Pakistani jehadi terrorists. People who do not understand this, do not understand the Indian populace.

Myth #8 Pakistan’s economy is doing so well – much better than India’s. What have these guys been smoking!!!

Continuing his lobbying for Pakistan, Mani Shankar Aiyer insinuates "Shaukat Aziz ... announces that the Pakistan economy in the current financial year, July 2002-June 2003, has recorded the fastest growth in South Asia. He does not say so but the sad fact is that they have overtaken India as we slide downwards and they slither up. Per capita income in the current fiscal year, he adds, has risen by a double-digit figure..."; while another delusional rant in Dawn states "attainment of a much better life for the Pakistanis and the Bangladeshis", as compared to Indians of course. Your run-of-the-mill ‘Pakistan’s economy is doing much better than India’s’ canard.

So, lets start with some base numbers that tell us something about growth-rates, aid and debt:

1. Per Capita External Debt India $98 Pakistan $228

2. Per capita External aid India $3 Pakistan $14

3. GDP growth rate India 5.5% Pakistan 3.1%

4. Population growth rate India 1.58% Pakistan 2.17%

5. Literacy India 66% (Male:76% Female 55%) Pakistan 44% (Male:55% Female 32%)

First, size matters when we talk about economies. I’m sure there are tiny countries that have higher per-capita incomes than the US, but it sure does not count for a whole lot in global geopolitics. Comparisons on this issue quickly become meaningless, especially when you consider the implied geopolitical power of a near $550bn Indian economy, as opposed to $60bn Pakistani economy. Nevertheless, today the market capitalization of just the Bombay Stock Exchange is US$275 billion, more than five times Pakistan’s GDP. The top five companies on the Bombay Stock Exchange account for a market capitalization twice Pakistan’s GDP. Gives you an idea of economic muscle- does it not?

Now, let us look at the pesky per capita income numbers. Reality is that Pakistan's per capita income ($420.00) has declined to below that of Sub Saharan Africa ($460.00). Mr. Aiyer's magic numbers that proclaim a $10.00 in per capita income growth fails to take into account the re-evaluation of most currencies against the dollar - thus, automatically, the Indian Rupee has gone up by 4% and so has the Indian per capita income. [Parsuram, BRF]. So, most everybody’s per-capita numbers have gone up somewhat, since Uncle Sam is printing up dollars night and day - incorrect implications by Mr. Aiyer here. In fact, if you look at income growth over 1990-2000, an average Indian was fifty per cent more prosperous in 2000 compared to his (or her) situation in 1990, while a Pakistani gained only 13% in the same time.

So, what about those great growth numbers brought about by Musharraf’s policies. Taking a closer look at Pakistan's claims of growth, Dr. Assad Sayyed says "General Musharraf and his economic mandarins generally highlight ...the military regime has been able to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.6% of the GDP compared to … 6.1% in the 1990s. As much as 41% of this reduction in the deficit was achieved through slashing public investment.". Or in other words, Pakistan cut out critical public investment to prop up the numbers. Mr. Musharraf in order to protect his gaddi (seat of power), has doomed the Pakistani public to many more years of minimal improvements in living standards.

The much touted foreign exchange reserves were also helped along with a little subterfuge. First, the growth $1.5 bn to $3.5bn was done through a change in measurement methodology, a neat Chinese numbers trick. Paraphrasing Dr. Assad further, the other main factors in the growth to $10bn which happened after 9/11, include "debt restructuring that reduced outflows to about $1bn", charity from Uncle Sam’s friends and finally "remittances into Pakistan … because those who kept money abroad were fearful of their accounts being frozen in the wake of the American anti-terrorist campaign". Thus, the money was really not earned by financial policies, but by promises not to kill too many American women and children. Basically, Baksheesh(gratis), extortion money and an effort to hide mostly ill-gotten wealth accounts for most of it.

Some of you will turn around and say so what!! – but, the actual situation for Pakistan has actually worsened quite a bit in the last year. Explains Farrukh Saleem by way of background "America buys Rs100 billion worth of Pakistani textiles a year. "Made in Pakistan" labels are available in some 5,000 retail outlets throughout the US. In Pakistan, 60 per cent of the total labor force - some 25 million workers are employed by the textile sector.”. Thus, the textile industry is the only legitimate industry of any size in Pakistan – of course, illegitimate businesses like drug trade, gun-running and kidnapping account for much more.

Unfortunately, it seems "American Eagle Outfitters and Perry Ellis have stopped ordering Pakistani apparel altogether. ...Orders from large American retailers are down more than 40 percent ...(or)... 64 percent reduction in orders for clothes that would be made from December through February.". As a consequence, at least “150,000 Pakistanis have already lost their jobs and some 177 manufacturers have closed down shop. .. Spill-over job losses would eventually run into a million or so (when apparel workers don't have the money to buy eggs poultry workers also suffer and so on).”. This trend is not going away any time soon – just like countries do not want to play cricket in Pakistan, they do not want to do business in Pakistan.

Next let's see what how the Indian economy is doing, according to some drooling Pakistanis -“Mumbai is now home to at least three dozen American companies including Kodak, Heinz, Monsanto, Warner Bros, Federal Express, Bank of America, Bankers Trust, Parke Davis, Intel, JP Morgan, Kellogg, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, American Int’l Group, Exxon-Mobil, Delta and Boston Consulting.

Delhi has AT&T, GE, General Motors, Oracle, Pepsi, Unocal, Xerox, Lockheed, Raytheon, Rockwell, Honeywell, Adobe, AES, Alcoa, American Express, Northrop, McKinsey, Amway, Polaroid and Coca Cola. Bangalore has Caterpillar, Dell, Sun, Texas Instruments, NCR, Hewlett Packard, Motorola, Lucent, IBM, Novell, Ingersoll-Rand, American Data and MetLife. Hyderabad has Microsoft, Cognizant, Chip Engines and Brigade. Chennai has Ford, Caltex, Tenneco, Covansys, Diebold, Citibank, Ernst & Young and Price Waterhouse.

A large majority of US corporate giants are now dependent on Tata Consultancy, Infosys Technologies, Wipro, Satyam Computer Services, HCL Technologies, Patni Computer Systems, Silverline Technologies, Mahindra, Pentasoft, Mascot, Mascom, Mastek, Polaris, L&T and Hexaware (all Indian software giants).”

The list goes on and on – in fact, now at least 77 MNCs produce intellectual property (not sweat shops) in R&D labs in India. Mr. Iyer- how many companies have done the same in Pakistan in the last few years? In fact, can you name any significant export products from Pakistan, other than textiles, low-end sports equipment, drugs and terrorism – can you name any intellectually relevant commercial products?? Nope. Proves my point doesn’t it.

Myth #9 With Kashmir resolved, both India and Pakistan can retarget defense spending towards poverty alleviation. Wrong!!

The fact is that India’s defense needs are steadily increasing and will not go down, whatever happens to Pakistan and Kashmir. Due to globalization and every major business deal being fought over by many nations, it does help to be able to flex both economic and military muscle. Also, China’s growing territorial, geopolitical and economic ambitions are bound to clash with India's more and more. So, taking our eyes off defense spending is unlikely. In any case, as India achieves more indigenization in the defense industry, this will ultimately create more jobs. The LCA effort for example could save us up to 125,000 crores.

Countries with an economic structure like India’s should be able to spend 3-5% of its GDP without affecting social programs. The problem with our social program spending or our poverty alleviation programs is not the amount that we spend, but rather the actual amount that reaches the poor. As Tavleen Singh puts it “Mr. Vajpayee’s own government pointed this out two years ago in a Planning Commission report, which admitted that much of the Rs 35,000 Crore that the Central Government spends annually on anti-poverty programmes goes waste because it does not reach those it is supposed to benefit.”. Do we really think that if redirect an additional 30,000 crores from our defense budget to poverty alleviation, any more will reach our poor? Somehow, I do not think so.

Myth #10 Kashmir is a political issue. Yeah, right!!

Jayaditya Gupta authoritatively gloats “Let's get one thing clear at the very beginning: India and Pakistan should play each other in cricket and the sooner the better. Sport is non-negotiable, above politics — or should be so — and, when used wisely, can actually improve political relations.”. Nothing surprising, of course, since respected folks like Syed Shahabuddin have also been claiming exactly the same to justify his relatively greater outrage at what is happening in Iraq, as opposed to Indian deaths in Kashmir.

There’s a fly in this ointment. Unfortunately, the nature of the political discourse between India and Pakistan is captured by the following headlines:

* “Suspected Islamic militants axed to death six members of a shepherd's family overnight …The attackers killed four women and two children, the officer said.”

* “Militants slit the throats of two women, shot dead another person and set off two explosions damaging a bridge …”

* “Terrorists lob grenade into Christian school, kill one teacher…”

* “Pakistani terrorists were occupying about 100 square kilometres of Indian territory, 35 km inside the Line of Control around Hilkaka in Jammu and Kashmir”

* “The militants took over the hotel, in the heart of the town, after opening fire on a market. Officials say three civilians also died in the incident.”

* “Terrorists have slit the throats of two of the four policemen abducted after the attack on a police post in Udhampur on Sunday. Eleven people, including nine policemen, were killed in the attack on Sunday. Meanwhile, militants on Monday afternoon gunned down two Sikh villagers including a driver of police vehicle after they were abducted near village Pohru in the south Kashmir Pulwama district.”

* “Unidentified gunmen barged into a house in a remote village of Mandi. The irked gunmen in an attempt to punish the lady Sharifa Bi wife of Muhammad Husain put her on fire and then extinguished the flames to let her die in pain.”

* “Women Killed over dress-code. The attackers slit the throats of two of the women, both aged 21, and shot the third,…”

But, what do I know of political discourse? Maybe, Mr. Gupta and Mr. Shahabuddin would like to invite some of these Pakistanis over to their own homes for some dinner and political discourse like this. However, I’m sure most Indians do not want anything to do with this kind of political discourse.

Get this point once and for all – Kashmir is a terrorism issue; Kashmir is an issue of genocide perpetrated by Pakistanis; much like they did in Afghanistan and Bangladesh. Stop this genocide.

Myth #11 Kashmiris (meaning Indian Kashmiris) are being oppressed and tortured. Biased at best.

In July 2002, a member of the US Civil Rights Commission reminded Muslims of the possibility of their internment if there is another attack on US soil – essentially, if another attack occurred on US soil similar to 911, then all Muslims in the US could be imprisoned much like the Japanese were in the 1940s, according to this US official. The lesson - in terrorist strife torn areas, the government often has to act with a heavy hand and I’m sure the Indian government has, in some cases in Kashmir. But, my sympathy for the Kashmiris ends there and Pakistanis certainly do not have a right to speak on this issue.

Somehow, the whole issue of human rights and Pakistani principles disappear, when we start talking about the people of Gilgit and Baltistan (Northern Areas). Speaking to the Urdu daily Jasarat, the mouthpiece of the Jamaat-E-Islami (no friend of India’s) emerging leader of Gilgit, Amir Humza Qureshi, rejected the official propaganda about human rights violations in Indian side of Kashmir, saying:

"It is a fact that people of this region (northern areas) are facing more human rights violations and whenever the official media talks of repression in (Indian) Kashmir people with strong hearts laugh at this hypocritical attitude and people with weak hearts cry. India is not perpetrating even one hundredth part of the repression that people spread over an area of 28,000 miles have been facing for the past 50 years. The Indian Government has given people all their fundamental human rights and in spite of that they are in a state of confrontation against the government. But the people of this region (northern areas) are far behind the rest of the world in matters of fundamental human rights, justice and economic development."

J&K insights tell us that the "Northern Areas" have no university and no professional colleges. The Pakistani government has set up only 12 high schools and two regional colleges with no post graduate facilities. Very few locals are able to get government jobs, and when they do, they are paid 25 per cent less than non-native entrants from Pakistan's Punjab province. 55 years after its annexation by Pakistan, adult literacy in the Northern Areas is 14 per cent for males and 3.5 per cent for women. There are no local dailies, or local radio or television stations. According to the most recently available data, there is just one doctor for 6,000 people. Piped water supply is virtually non-existent. And two thirds of the population must do without electricity in an area where winters are extremely harsh.

Of course, the Pakistani Government says since northern areas are not a part of its territory it cannot give its people constitutional rights. Apparently, this also means that the people of Northern areas get no human rights and no economic development.

Now let us compare with what is happening on the Indian side of the border. I recommend that people read Rajeev Srinivasan’s excellent article on the issue, but in case you haven’t I will liberally borrow some data. Per capita spending by the Central Government for all other states, averaged Rs. 1137, while for Kashmir the Central Government spent Rs. 8092. These figuires which do not include security costs, shows that India spent almost 8 times more on Kashmiris than it did on the rest of its citizens. As Rajeev puts it, “In fact, it gets 10 percent of all central assistance and J&K has received more than any other state since 1995! Far out of proportion to its fair share, which by population should be about 1 percent: that is, J&K gets roughly ten times what it deserves.”.

All this of course, does not include the 25000 crores ($5B) spent by the Government on development projects – take a look at the table published by Rajeev

Projects

Cost Rs, in crores
Railways

4,496

Jammu-Udhampur

446

Udampur-Srinagar-Baramulla

3,564

Jammu Tawi-Jalandar

486
Roads

1,700

NH 1A

1200

Batote-Kishwar-Singhan Pass

200

Leh via Manali Road

1,300
Public Works

318

Reconstruction of gutted bridges

224

Planning Commission Projects

30

Schools

65
Power

16,000

Salai Power Project

921

Dulhasti Hydro Project

4,279

Uri Project

3,300
Tourism

115

Dal Lake cleanup

100

Tourist facility projects

19

Leh Convention Center

2

Now compare this with the economic development of the Northern Areas in Pakistan. Do we really think we should be focusing on the ill-treatment of people in J&K? All this after the Kashmiris have not only encouraged jihadi murderers from Pakistan to come and kill aplenty, but in many cases eagerly participated in killing other Indians.

The issue does not end here though. Pakistanis have basically occupied NA and populated it with Punjabis who enjoy special privileges, such as higher pay. In India, I and other Indians cannot buy property or settle in J&K, while Kashmiris happily throw away anybody they do not like on to the rest of India – in this case, the Pandits and the Sikhs. Not satisfied with this, Sonia is asking other states to reserve seats for students from J&K – essentially, in India Kashmiris enjoy all kinds of special privileges and in spite of this happily kill other Indians with impunity. In fact, Kashmiris not happy with the largesse of Indians have turned extortion and terrorism into a money making enterprise (Sudha Ramachandran in Asian Age). It is the people in Northern Areas, who are being occupied by the people from Pakistani Punjab.

So, let’s stop crying about the ill-treatment of Kashmiris in India and start paying some attention to the people of Gilgit and Baltistan.

So, what does this mean for the talks?

We have to ask ourselves at this point, why have these myths been perpetrated and who do they benefit most? I’m sure that there are well meaning Indians who hope that trade and people to people contact will change things in Pakistan. There’s nothing wrong in this view, but let us at least go in with our eyes open – let us not be blinded by myths and Pakistani delusions.

Recognize, that Pakistan always needs something or the other from us – sometimes it is cricket since their cricket funds are running dry and nobody wants to play in Pakistan; at other times it is more water since their water problem could lead to a civil war one within Pakistan; and of course, reconsideration of the Turkmenistan-Afghan-Pakistan pipeline, which nobody will fund, if it does not reach the Indian market. In return, we ask for one thing and one thing only – that they behave like a civilized nation towards us.

This unfortunately has been difficult for Pakistan – thanks to the terrorist indoctrination system and Pakistan’s tendency to perpetrate genocide on their neighbors every other decade, things have not been peaceful between the two nations for most of our lifetimes. Talks, compromise and Indian magnanimity will not change the basic underlying artifacts that define the Pakistani state. So, let us not get surprised when we hear “Pakistan is preparing to flood Kashmir with jehadis (terrorists) if talks fail...The bulk of militants to be sent across the Line of Control (LoC) will be drawn from the renamed LeT" and as this analysis suggests, we should not be surprised if Pakistanis shows exactly the same behavior, even if talks do succeed.

However, India needs to move forward on the talks – but as we do so, let us re-evaluate the focus and strategy of these talks based solely upon Indian national interests, without the sheen of Pakistani delusions and fallacies or for that matter our own fantasies about being able to reform Pakistan. So, what are the base truths that Indians must keep in mind when approaching the India-Pakistan talks?

The true presumptive basis for any strategic Indian thinking on Pakistan are:

1. Solving Kashmir will NOT bring peace to the Indian sub-continent – Kashmir is not the main issue, Pakistan is

2. Pakistan’s in stability is due to its moth-eaten and unreliable institutions, as well as due to the diffusion of jihadi terrorist thinking throughout all aspects of Pakistani society – not due to its trumped up animosity with India

3. Solving Kashmir, Indian generosity or propping up the Pakistani economy will not reform Pakistani institutions or cleanse Pakistani society of jihadi radicalism

4. A Kashmir solution that Pakistan will sign on to, does not have any immediate benefits for India – neither terrorism not nuclear threats will stop

5. A Pakistan, capable of civilized behavior with its neighbors will go a long way in ridding the world of the scourge of terrorism

Knowing this, we Indians are better equipped to form out a strategy, based on our national interests.

So, what about peace you ask? Paraphrasing Golda Meir - When the Pakistanis start loving their children more than they hate India there will be peace. Not before then.

(email-arindam_banerji@yahoo.com)
http://www.saag.org/papers8/paper710.html

The skys the limit for discussion