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Originally Posted by Bluesman
Riiiiight. If there hasn't been civil war by now, there won't be. The Sunnis are 20% of the population, and the Shia and Kurds have 'em MASSIVELY out-gunned. Furthermore, if the country stays together, the Sunnis get a cut of the oil, which they will NOT get if the Sunnis somehow succeed in seceding.
I do not believe that the Sunnis want to give up what power and wealth they now have for some squalid squat in the slums of Baghdad and a worthless stretch of western Iraq desert that noone wants. Not only that, it would probably be the end of most Sunnis mere existence in Iraq, because the Shia and the Kurds - which are mostly Sunni - have just about had enough of their crap, and if given the excuse and the power - which they have RIGHT NOW - goodbye, losers.
They will keep doing what they have done since the invasion: whining every step of the way down the road to democratization, and accepting the inevitable: loss of their exalted position as a ruling minority.
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The sunnis are a lot of things, but they are NOT retards. They will wait until we are gone before trying anything like open warfare. For now they are perfecly willing to drag their feet and whine while they let insurigents from other countries do the dirty work and the bleeding for them. All the while hoping and praying we leave befor their future is set in stone. The longer the U.S. stays, the harder it will be for the sunnis to get away with anything. Yes, the sunnis are outnumbered, but that is exactly how suicide bombers like it. Arms can pour across the border at a whim, Hell, so could half of Syria. Iran responds...and here we go again. The Kurds would jump ship in a heartbeat and support the sunnis if they thought they could get an independant statehood out of the deal. If the sunnis do give up; that would be a best case scenario and we have not seen that since the initial invasion.