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Originally Posted by Ray
With so many leaders of the EU against the inclusion of Turkey in the EU, what are the chances?
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I think almost 100%. The economic and political benefits for the EU are too great. Turkey is EU's little China. The question is when and not if. There are not so many leaders opposing Turkish membership and they are just saying Turkey hasn’t reformed enough to start the negotiations, not that they don’t want to see it in the EU.
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What are the real reasons to exclude Turkey?
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Fears of losing jobs to cheaper Turkish labor, country where (Muslim) religion still plays a big role, it's proximity to the volatile middle east, unsolved Kurdish question…
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What are the gains and losses for the EU if Turkey is given membership?
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Gains:
-more money into EU budget (later)
-powerful influence over Middle East
-huge new EU market (Euro zone)
-more powerful EU
-enrichment of EU’s cultural picture
Losses:
-in the beginning a lot of EU aid for development will go to Turkey, with that less money for others
-even harder to reach an EU consensus
-more competition in the job market (good for business, bad for workers)
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If Croatia with its negative inputs can vie to be a member, then what is it that prevents her inclusion?
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Croatia has only one "negative input" - its (people not government) unwillingness to cooperate with Haag. Economically and judicature it is much better prepared for membership in the EU.
What prevents Turkey from joining is meeting EU standard. New member countries which joined EU in 2004 needed 10 years to meet these standards. Turkey with its different culture and traditions (judicature, role of military...) will in my view take even longer then 10 years for reforms that will satisfy the EU and the EU will stand by its demands. Some in Europe need more time to accommodate the idea of Turkey’s membership in the EU and also EU must prepare itself to a new powerful member.