India is encircled by hostile nations that are friendly with China. India’s longtime adversary, Pakistan, is out to reduce India’s influence in the region at every opportunity. Relations with Bangladesh are deteriorating steadily since the time Khaleda Zia came to power in October2001. The need for improvement of relations with Myanmar has therefore gained more importance.
The insurgency problem in the North East States of India cannot be controlled effectively without help from Myanmar. Despite assurances by U Win Aung, Foreign Minister of Myanmar, during his recent visit (Jan 19-24, 2003) to India, that his country will not allow insurgent groups to carry out anti-India activities, it is seen that Myanmar has not been able to fully implement its assurances. One reason could be the the shortage of manpower and another could be its own endemic insurgencies.
Myanmar has officially confirmed in Jan 2002 that it is building a nuclear reactor. Two Pak scientists are known to have been in Myanmar in an advisory capacity. Though the reactor (as per IAEA officials) is unlikely to be suitable for production of nuclear weapons, Chinese and Pakistan’s help to Myanmar for this purpose at a future date cannot be ruled out.
The drugs from Myanmar and the arms from Thailand are smuggled to the Indian insurgent groups from Tamu and a few other places on the Indo-Myanmar border. Myanmar’s help is very much needed to effectively stop this traffic.
Myanmar Foreign Minister’s Visit to India
There has been a hype in the Indian media and in the political circles about the recent visit of the Myanmar Foreign Minister U Wing Aung to India from 19-24 January 2003. He met PM Atal Behari Vajpayee and held talks with several key ministers including the Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha. The two foreign Ministers signed a protocol which establishes regular bilateral ministerial consultations. More than the protocol and the agreement the strategic partnership that was forged during this visit is being considered a breakthrough in the bilateral relations. Some observers feel Myanmar now seeks good ties with Delhi as a way to balance their dependence on Beijing for trade, soft loans and military hardware. If so, it is a good development and India should cash on this.
Conclusion: With the successful India-Asean Summit in Nov 2002, India’s “Look-East” policy must be more pro-active and be more aggressive in promoting regional economic integration. Myanmar has a large economic potential which is already being exploited by other Asean nations and India could also reap the benefits of this developing economy. Myanmar being one of the BIMST-EC countries India could play a dominant part to make the initiative more meaningful for improving the relationship with Myanmar. There is scope for improved bilateral cooperation in energy (oil and gas exploration), health, education, defence (supplies and training) and IT sectors. India should be more committed in improving the relations by frequent high level visits to voice its concerns without giving a feeling that India is competing with China or is trying to wean Myanmar away from China. India need not compete with China either as both have sufficient political and economic space for development of the region.
(Most of the inputs for this paper have been extracted from the article posted on the South Asia Analysis Group Forum by Vijay Sakhuja, Maritime Security Analyst and Research Scholar at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi)
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