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Sameer · 09-30-2005, 12:16 PM

For one thing you could test for statistical break from the post 1991 time trend trend rate of growth by employing a simple Lucas like model.

ie

The natural logs of

lngdp= alpha + beta1 (time trend 1980-2002)+beta(2)lngdp(-1)

Then you could calculate the time trend based on statistical significance via OLS.

You could then rerun this same regression by adding another time trend from 2002 onwards (until 06 by using the IMF predicted growth rate)
ie
the above equation + beta3(time 03-06) while I fear that your results will probably have to wait an extra year to test for the break.

That would confirm if India has broken the 6.2% Neo hindu rate of growth.

See example
http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/sar/sa.nsf/Attachments/annexch8/$File/annexch8.pdf

09-30-2005, 12:16 PM	#2 (permalink)
Sameer Banished *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 07-12-05 Posts: 2,541	For one thing you could test for statistical break from the post 1991 time trend trend rate of growth by employing a simple Lucas like model. ie The natural logs of lngdp= alpha + beta1 (time trend 1980-2002)+beta(2)lngdp(-1) Then you could calculate the time trend based on statistical significance via OLS. You could then rerun this same regression by adding another time trend from 2002 onwards (until 06 by using the IMF predicted growth rate) ie the above equation + beta3(time 03-06) while I fear that your results will probably have to wait an extra year to test for the break. That would confirm if India has broken the 6.2% Neo hindu rate of growth. See example http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/sar/sa.nsf/Attachments/annexch8/$File/annexch8.pdf Last edited by Sameer : 09-30-2005 at 12:19 PM.