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canoe · 09-28-2005, 19:07 PM

"if China joins in the development, then yes, as of now, I don't think 2.5 billion is enough. If you look at the development cost of JSF, F-22 and eurofighter, it's hard to believe that 2.5 billion is enough to come up with something on that level."

Agreed. However I think if that happened the Chinese Government would take over the lead on design project (given the have all the cash) and just pay Russian engineers to work for them. In the long run I think Russia would end up having to buy the aircraft their engineers designed from the Chinese.
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"the point to note is that a lot of development has been done. List the TVC is there already. Saperate investments have been done for the AESA. (which are not there in the budget account here.). In the same way lots of avionics etc are developed or in stages of developments via SU47 project and MFI project. Though even after that 2.5 B $ might not be nough. but surely it wont need the extent of investment needed for F22/F35/EF2000."

The last estimate I saw for a true Russian serial production AESA radar is nearly a decade away. (This was from the Russians Defense Department)
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"Dont forget the pay diff between US, EU & russia too."
Granted there would definately be labour savings.
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Replying to Garry's post:
This isen't a design for competition with the Raptor (its finicially impossible for the Russians right now even taking labour savings into account) this is a design to compete with the JSF.

As stated in the article the engine they're designing to compete with the JSF is the AL-41F, as of 2004 it was 30% complete and needed another 600-800 million to finish plus another 150 million (minimum) to prepare it for serial production.

The other MAJOR issue the Russian airforce is rapidly approaching is alot of their aircraft are ageing and will need to be replaced in the very near future, given the budget constraints of the Russian military their going to need a cheap alternative or they'll be force to ground a large segment of their airforce and reducing in the air training time for all their pilots.

Given their situation I think they're better off designing a cheaper replacement for their aging aircraft and put more money into developing better avionics and weapons immediately. The next generation of missiles are 5 years off and currently the Russians have nothing definitive coming to compete with European or Amercian weaponary.

The big issue is the Russians seem to be they're obsessed with trying to maintain numerical parity with the U.S in terms of military hardware. The realistic situation is Russia would stand to gain alot more by downsizing its military to something more the size of the British or French militaries and start focusing on quality rather then quanitity. Right now the majority of the Russian navy is in such poor shape its dangerous for them to leave dock, for any other military that would be unacceptable.

09-28-2005, 19:07 PM	#7 (permalink)
canoe *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-13-05 Posts: 698 Country:	"if China joins in the development, then yes, as of now, I don't think 2.5 billion is enough. If you look at the development cost of JSF, F-22 and eurofighter, it's hard to believe that 2.5 billion is enough to come up with something on that level." Agreed. However I think if that happened the Chinese Government would take over the lead on design project (given the have all the cash) and just pay Russian engineers to work for them. In the long run I think Russia would end up having to buy the aircraft their engineers designed from the Chinese. --- "the point to note is that a lot of development has been done. List the TVC is there already. Saperate investments have been done for the AESA. (which are not there in the budget account here.). In the same way lots of avionics etc are developed or in stages of developments via SU47 project and MFI project. Though even after that 2.5 B $ might not be nough. but surely it wont need the extent of investment needed for F22/F35/EF2000." The last estimate I saw for a true Russian serial production AESA radar is nearly a decade away. (This was from the Russians Defense Department) --- "Dont forget the pay diff between US, EU & russia too." Granted there would definately be labour savings. --- Replying to Garry's post: This isen't a design for competition with the Raptor (its finicially impossible for the Russians right now even taking labour savings into account) this is a design to compete with the JSF. As stated in the article the engine they're designing to compete with the JSF is the AL-41F, as of 2004 it was 30% complete and needed another 600-800 million to finish plus another 150 million (minimum) to prepare it for serial production. The other MAJOR issue the Russian airforce is rapidly approaching is alot of their aircraft are ageing and will need to be replaced in the very near future, given the budget constraints of the Russian military their going to need a cheap alternative or they'll be force to ground a large segment of their airforce and reducing in the air training time for all their pilots. Given their situation I think they're better off designing a cheaper replacement for their aging aircraft and put more money into developing better avionics and weapons immediately. The next generation of missiles are 5 years off and currently the Russians have nothing definitive coming to compete with European or Amercian weaponary. The big issue is the Russians seem to be they're obsessed with trying to maintain numerical parity with the U.S in terms of military hardware. The realistic situation is Russia would stand to gain alot more by downsizing its military to something more the size of the British or French militaries and start focusing on quality rather then quanitity. Right now the majority of the Russian navy is in such poor shape its dangerous for them to leave dock, for any other military that would be unacceptable. Last edited by canoe : 09-28-2005 at 19:11 PM.