Originally Posted by Fairthought

IT is hard for the US to argue Iran needs to be punished for violating the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty when US allies -Israel, Pakistan, and India- have all violated the same treaty and got little or no punishment at all. It is even harder for the US to argue Iran needs to be punished for violating a treaty when the US unilaterally dumped the ABM treaty, calling it a relic of the cold war. The Russians are still quite mad about that. And the Russians may get revenge in the matter of Iran. Is not the NNPT a relic of the cold war? A treaty that calls on all non-nuclear nations to grant the cold war nuclear powers exclusive right to nukes? It is a treaty that no longer reflects the reality of the word today. Not only is the cold war over, but there are already numerous violations.

Originally Posted by Fairthought

The US will certainly initiate the need for war against Iran, arguing its case before the Europeans. The Europeans, particularly France and Germany, will not be so obstinate the second time around. France in particular suffered a lot from US diplomatic attacks, and they have learned to change their tune. They will be eager to be hard on Iran to show how valuable French support can be. The Russians are eager for entry into the WTO and European investment. In exchange for economic breakthroughs the Russians could very well turn their backs on Iran. They have already delayed the start of the Bushehr reactor several times and now are suspending the sales of military arms -tying them to European anti-nuclear initiatives.

I think if a UN veto is to come from anywhere it would be China. China has a $100 billion petroleum investment deal in Iran, worth potentially $200 billion in total trade. These aren't the types of investments that China is willing to lose. Iran also has a gas pipeline in the works with India, in addition to a $20 billion Indian investment in Iranian gas. But a UN veto will be irrelevant to the US anyway.

Originally Posted by Fairthought

Once nukes get dropped on the middle east five effects will occur:

1. The islamic world will see this a proof that America is on a crusade to kill muslims and reduce any rising muslim country into rubble. This will yield many thousands of terrorist cells to form spntaneously and without any recruitment effort by al-qaida. The number of terrorist incidents will skyrocket. The US will be losing the war on terror.

2. The panic of oil investors, recognizing 35% of the worlds oil is now in and around a war zone will cause the price of oil to skyrocket. $100 per barrel will be a conservative estimate. The price could reach as high as $150 per barrel. Any sudden rise in energy will be a shock to oil importing economic systems. The most vulnerable ecnomoy wil be the US. Attacks on oil pipelines and other facilities will in increase in Iraq and spread to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Indonesia, etc. -wherever there is a muslim country with oil. Bombs and energy don't mix. Even the hint of war in the persian gulf would cause a speculation panic. Global economic recession.

3. The use of nukes for tactical purposes will encourage other nuclear powers to lower their inhibitions. China will be more likely to incorporate nukes into any invasion plan for Taiwan. Russia, France, Israel, Pakistan, India will be more inclined to use nukes in their various conflicts around the world. The use of tactical nukes along the Indo-pakistan border will inevitably lead to the application of stronger nukes. Nuclear war be far more likely, and every single country in the world will develop a nuclear program for their own safety.

4. Iran has already infiltrated Iraq with numerous scouts and snipers and organized shiite militias and established an underground network complete with weapon caches. The only reason the US hasn't suffered 500 dead per month in Iraq is because Iran has kept this powderkeg in check. It is being used as a deterrent against US aggression on Iran. The sunni triangle insurgency will be nothing in comparison to what Iran will unleash.

5. World opinion of the US will plummet. The US will no longer be seen as a stabilizing force in the world, but a loose canon out of control and throwing havoc across the world. The great powers -Europeans, Russia, India, China, Brazil, OPEC- will cement cooperation to check the world's lone superpower, at least long enough to groom China and India to eventually replace the US as more rational superpowers.



So if the reason for going to war with Iran was punish them for violating the NNPT, the action will be a miserable failure due to consequence number three above (everyone will develop nukes).

If the reason for going to war with Iran is Iran's involvement with insurgents in Iraq against US troops, then the action will be a failure due to consequence number four above.

If the reason for going to war with Iran is because Iran is a purported sponsor of terrorism, then the action will be a tremedous failure due to consequence number one above.

If the reason for going to war with Iran is to insure US and Israeli exclusive nuclear dominance in the middle east, one has to argue what additional benefit will this have? The US and Israel already have clear military superiority and that is not likely to change even with Iranian nukes. The Israeli peace process has already begun, even before any other middle-eastern nation has announced their nuclear abilities. It is simply in Israel's own interests to pursue the peace process.

Destroying Iran's nulcear facilities will not give you security because you already have security. Iran doesn't want a nuclear war, she would be decimated. America and Israel already have strong deterrents in place. Iran doesn't want to give nukes to terrorist because that puts themselves at risk. No country in the world would fail to safe guard their own nukes from falling into the hands of others.

The benefits of a war on Iran are all imaginary. But to those possessed by paranoia and propaganda the imaginary is all too real.