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Hi. CIA is deeply involved in terrorist training and support in Latin America, Africa, Asia and mostly in Afghanistan. I do this statement and don't want to spend much time searching for evidence. If you don't take this statement I will take my time and build a list of cases......
Many Taliban commanders were financed by CIA long before they became Taliban. Later they were fostered by Pakistan with silent agreement with US. I don't want to list a long history of CIA activity in Latin America... they can easily score around ten bloody coups, supporting contras, or other "rebels".... Noriega was one of them at a time. Both CIA and KGB were supporting a lot of terrorists in 1970-80es but called them different way..... No prove has been provided against Iran to call for international sanctions approved by UN like it was done with Libia.... And now not starting a trial against a guy who blown up a whole aircraft from Cuba is not giving much creatidibility to US for judging who are terrorists and who are just their SOB....
Fighting Soviet soldiers in Afghanistan montains is the same as killing young marines in Iraq. I have some relatives killed in 1988.... This is called resistance, partisans or terrorists.... depends from what side of the front you are looking at. And people who fought in both wars have quite simmilar goals - 1) leberating their home from occupation 2) building islamic utopia. While Soviets in Afghanistan and US in Iraq are having quite similar tasts - 1) building their own utopia (democracy in Iraq and coutry for socialistic state for workers and farmers in Afghanistan) in their lands, 2) creating themselves an aly and preventing enemy having harbor there.
US and European policy against Iran is quite dilluted since they swallowed Pakistan and India having a bomb despite all treaties..... no punishment. Pakistan is much more unstable than Iran and bomb there is great headache.
US policy actually pushes everybody who is not approved by US to create a bomb. Iraqi war and current US behavior gives a bad lesson - Saddam was attacked because he had no bomb.... N Korea will not be touched because they have one..... US threatens Iran for two decades.... They want to protect themselves. They will create a bomb.
Russia does not want Iran to have a bomb. It is its neighbour (no need for explaining) and without bomb it needs Russian support..... while having a bomb Iran may be less dependent on Russia and much more agressive in dividing Caspian Sea oil resources.... However Russians have also a short term benefits from opposing US. And those are strong.....
In long-term China does not want Iran to have a bomb, nor anybody to join nuclear club in its hemisphere.... However China is trying to get Iranian oil. US unofficially did not let Chinese buy US oil company despite a higher bid. Bad signal for China. They realized that market for oil resources is not that free and liberal as we all may want to think. So they go for resources where they can have them......
However Iran will get bomb. And it will get it because Israel, Pakistan and India have it..... Iran has many threats and they understand that only a bomb would make them safe from possible attacks of US and/or Israel.... They also understand that US can not support two land wars at a time now..... and they are not very afraid of air strikes as they could revenge to US in Iraq giving full scale support to resistance forces...... Seems like they are ready to play it to the end....
Russia is currently thinking to sell S-300PMU2 to Iran. Deal is ready. Iranians are ready to buy it without long negotiations, pay any price, and take any additional products which Russians would require them to buy (like cars, tractors, whatever other crap). However somebody on top of Russian olimp is not sure. The deal is on hold for few years. I would guess that something is demanded from Iran and it is related to oil in Caspean Sea.... I did not understand what Russia wants - Iran giving up its position in Caspian sea and lettign the seabed to be divided, or Iran to be destructive to the process of seabed division thus giving no chance to Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenstan to start commercial exploration anytime soon.....
Those are my thoughts on situation.
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What is really surprising is that I have read few forums on this topic and come to understandign that US is getting quite dangerous. To many US people are eager to pool the triger and see nice TV show of war raging somewhere far from their home..... They are quite arrogant about "ROW (rest of the world)" and have little knowledge of geography or some preduces instead of knowledge of history.....
like almost nobody could say why US were kicked out of Iran where they had so much influence before revolution. What was done wrong that made Iranians hate US?
But I am not writting this just to claim something I have observed. I want to draw conclusions further.... US society has overcome a Vietnam syndrome and is quite keen to see War Entertainment..... US movies which are created for ordinary people are full of topics where US guys are fighting somewhere abroad and win stupid enemies.... the auditorium is clearly keep for heroic stories. Peoples like Sinpe, Leader or many here would find it probably quite cool to see how all the hardware they like discussing would perform in a new campaign.....
Deaths in Iraq are quite small to terrify people. So they will demand another show.... and probably US will look for a good target..... Iran is good one and most of americans will support this direction as they have been brainwashed many years about how bad is Iran. Despite the threats such a campaign may involve for US in the region....
Adding now Iranians firm goal to get a nuclear weapons and US desire to have a new full scale show, I would expect a millitary conflict to start within 3-4 years.
What is interesting is will Russia and China support Iran and oppose US or prefer to step asside and get WTO and other candies...... Will Iran agree to give up its position in Caspian Sea but win security..... I have no idea
ps. the last point
Bush administration made all treaties cost not even a penny since it came to power..... unilatteral strickes...... unilateral termination of treaty against missile defense. Under this administration US left no doubt that it will terminate any treaty once they feel it not comfortable any more
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